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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gold$10k who wrote (20208)	10/13/2002 11:11:03 AM
From: Art Bechhoefer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

If 1982 is the inflation adjusted bottom, as you point out, you may also recall that in 1982, interest rates were in double digits, with home mortgages going typically around 14 percent. Do you really see current levels of interest rates rising that much? Is the possibility of inflation the problem now, as it was then, or is it the possibility of DEFLATION? How does your scenario work if the economy in the U.S. becomes deflationary, as it has been in Japan? Art

To: gold$10k who wrote (20208)	10/13/2002 1:19:20 PM
From: Louis V. Lambrecht	Respond to of 36161

vt - inflation adjusted or not. Yes. I always run in the same problems. Be it PoG, price of crude, indexes,.... hard to keep comparing oranges to oranges. Longwaves and cycles have to do with the economy, not with the market for paper-shares. So, I would put it this way: market for paper-shares always lead the economy <g> Now, 2010,... lotsa deadlines there: Hubert peark, H Dent boomers boom, exhaustion of currently known gold reserves,.... So, better make the best of the current market to earn something on it. IMHO, between now and 2010, two elections cycles (almost all the world has 4 years political cycles), "THEY" have time to make some wrong decisions. Among which - I totally agree with you - printing us out deflation. And set the stage for a new inflation lead recovery, if there still is something to recover. OTOH, I am absolutely convinced that the recovery is under way for those who can read the signs. I can't. I dunno how, where to position for, say, 8 years from now?