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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: H-Man who wrote (308612)	10/15/2002 3:58:56 PM
From: Mr. Whist	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 769670

Even after the Bush DUI revelation emerged, more than one poll had Bush ahead by as many as 6 to 8 percentage points in the 72 hours prior to the election, which indeed does constitute a "landslide." Why were these polls flawed? Because they only focused on those "likely to vote," i.e., those who voted in the '96 presidential election. In this case, the sample was too restrictive to be accurate ... as I pointed out two years ago on this board. Re: "You cannot have a scientifically accurate poll without sufficiently large number": I'm not sure you're up to speed on this topic. You will seldom see a poll, even a national poll, with a sample of more than 1,000 people anymore. Law of diminishing returns ... after you have achieved a margin of error of 3.5 percent, it is not costworthy to increase your sample.