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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JohnM who wrote (52262)	10/15/2002 5:35:52 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 281500

Priority is not Iraq but terrorism timesonline.co.uk

To: JohnM who wrote (52262)	10/15/2002 9:02:52 PM
From: Nadine Carroll	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Rather simple. Arafat appeared to be on the ropes. Sharon runs that little bit of going back into the West Bank, Arafat regains some popularity, etc. My own guess, if we are having a serious conversation, is that all this is only noise. The real issue, best I can tell, is what follows Arafat. The real issue, John, is the underlying pattern -- Sharon moves forward, there is a temporary 'rallying round' effect, then a further ebbing of Arafat's power follows. The only reason we are discussing 'what follows Arafat' in the first place is that this pattern has been repeated several times for more than a year now, causing a cumulative weakening in Arafat's power. And every time Sharon moves forward, the same voices cry 'but you're strengthening Arafat', never noticing the overall pattern. If the Islamists follow and serious zealots on both sides take over, then Sharon's policies can hardly be judged a success; if, however, a more secular group follows, then they should be considered a success Frankly, Sharon would consider either result a success -- either an open enemy or a pragmatic regime would be an improvement over a fake "peace partner" bent on war. As it appears now, the likelihood is a split, Gaza to Hamas and the West Bank to some Fatah militia.