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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (20369)	10/17/2002 11:10:06 AM
From: 10K a day	Respond to of 36161

dude! that was sweet..

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (20369)	10/17/2002 11:49:12 AM
From: Mike M2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Slider, good comments. Its funny how the Wall St shills ignored market history when the market was valued at near twice historic PEAKS. Even after the recent decline we are more highly valued than 1929 at the peak. Yes 50% declines in the S&P are rare but so are bubbles. One important fact that Hoey leaves out is in the past when markets get cut in half stocks are at historically cheap valuations. Bear markets bottom at historically cheap valuations - this current ramp is nothing more than a spectacular bear rally (IMO). mike

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (20369)	10/17/2002 1:20:43 PM
From: Michael July	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Slider, have we seen the top in bond prices/low interest rates for this cycle? Seems to me we have. Looking at a chart of the 10-yr Treasury we've had 3 days of gap opens which have not been filled. I suspect there will be some backing and filling over the next few months but wonder if we will ever pierce the top put in place. What are your thoughts? I ask these as we are about to lock in on a 30 yr mortgage rate on a new home....and I've suspected the 6% 30 yr rates were as good as they would get. Today, they are at 6 1/2%. They went up 1/2% in one week!!!! Thus the bubble has burst. Since our new home won't be finished till the end of February we can either "float" the rate till the 90 day lock in period or "buy" for 1 1/4% a lock in for 180 days out. Seems to me I'd be gambling in a now volatile bond market and may not be able to do better than 6 1/2%. Anyone have a thought on a real-life question? TIA.