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Technology Stocks : EMC How high can it go? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JakeStraw who wrote (14682)	10/17/2002 12:41:27 PM
From: E.J. Neitz Jr	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17183

Listen to the replay of the call. You will hear a balance of the positives and not just the negatives addressed by The Street.Com. Balance sheet in fact strengthened with a very large cash balance and virtually no L.T. debt. Transitioning to software solutions and some of their newer offerings are growing very well. If anyone has a sincere interest in this company listening to the conference call replay is worth it. Replay available on EMC's website.

To: JakeStraw who wrote (14682)	10/17/2002 1:33:13 PM
From: Gus	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 17183

This is incredible. Thomas Weisel analyst Kevin Hunt said EMC's flat growth outlook was a surprise, tough market notwithstanding. "That's pretty much unheard of in this business. That's by far the most cautious outlook of anybody," he said, adding that *he estimates IBM's server and storage business will grow 30% in the quarter underway.* "It's not all [the fault of] IT spending. If it was then IBM would be guiding down," he said. "I would guess EMC is probably losing share in all areas." Year over year, IBM's Server and Storage biz declined by 19% in 1Q2002, by 17% in 2Q2002 and by 3% in 3Q2002. And he now expects it to increase by 30% in 4Q2002???? Within those Enterprise numbers, IBM did manage to increase Disk Storage by 11% YoY in 3Q2002, BUT, IBM's disk storage sales started dropping in 4Q2001 and practically collapsed in 1Q2002 (12% decline YoY) and 2Q2002 (25% decline YoY) as the sales drag of IBM's mainframe upgrade cycle, which started in 4Q2000, lessened as evidenced in part by the changes IBM had to make in its sales force compensation structure in late 2001 and early 2002. The disconnect in TW's analysis is that IBM claims to have increased Total Disk storage by 11% YoY and its SAN and NAS shipments by 19% YoY during 3Q2002, but yet Tivoli collapsed by 16% YoY. Something ain't right here because networked storage is inherently more software-intensive than DAS.<g> IBM Total Disk Storage/Tivoli 1Q2002 to 3Q2002 Total Disk Tivoli Storage 1Q2002 (12%) 7% 2Q2002 (25%) 14% 3Q2002 11% (16%) 4Q2002 - - I'm reminded here of the way that IBM kept on insisting that they were making money by giving Shark away until they could no longer hide the tremendous bleeding of its disk drive division which they were apparently using to subsidize the Shark giveaways so off the disk drive divison went from IBM's balance sheet to Hitachi's balance sheet. Hitachi/HDS are also claiming that they are making money despite having no software business.