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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: JohnM who wrote (53188)10/19/2002 1:03:45 PM
From: Nadine Carroll  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 281500
 
. As I was reading Pollack's dismissal of deterrence as a viable strategy, I could not help reflecting that in 1947 a stronger case than his could have been made that the least risky course for dealing with Stalin following World War II would have been to invade the Soviet Union and depose the tyrant before he could acquire nuclear weapons. Yet deterrence worked, even though the danger to the United States from a nuclear-armed Soviet Union was incomparably greater than the one that could be posed by a nuclear-armed Saddam Hussein.

A good many people did make this case, if I remember my history (and according to my late father's description of the time). Of course, looking back with 20/20 hindsight and breezily saying "deterrence worked" is not much a foreign policy guide -- deterrence came damn close to not working several times, and we ceded half the world to Stalin and fought the Cold War (a very hot war if you were in one of the proxy fights) for forty years because of it. Hardly a policy without costs! In itself not a good recommendation to go down the same path in Iraq, even if you think that Saddam may be deterrable. For one thing, Saddam is already 65 and I have heard few people call his eldest son Uday (whom he just named as his heir, if you didn't notice) deterrable. There are few rules for the son of the tyrant in Iraq; he can kill whom he likes almost without question, but even in Iraq it was crossing the line when Uday clubbed his father's trusted foodtaster to death at a diplomatic party because Uday blamed the foodtaster for introducing Saddam to the woman who became his second wife. Can you say, "Caligula with nukes"?



To: JohnM who wrote (53188)10/19/2002 1:12:11 PM
From: Win Smith  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 281500
 
I also noticed Matlock putting Iraq in the late 40s Stalin context. It'll be interesting to see how the neocons attack that one. I assume a Reagan appointee as ambassador to the Evil Empire is beyond the usual ad hominem appeaser attacks, but who knows? Desperate times call for desperate measures and all that. I am in agreement with Pollack and Matlock that if we go into Iraq, better be prepared for the long haul and expect something more like postwar Japan or Korea than a quick and easy CIA government installation. The latter kind of constructions have a pretty lame track record in general, from all the post-WWII history I know of.

The Times has some other good and topical articles from tomorrow's paper up early, which I'll post in a minute.



To: JohnM who wrote (53188)10/19/2002 1:36:33 PM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 281500
 
I thought these points were particularly telling.


I knew you are looking for a way out of changing your mind, John. :^) You may not have to. The next 30 days will be critical, IMO, as to what we do this winter. Gotta run. We have an 8 foot swell on the North Shore, with 15 to 20 foot breakers. It is going to be "Big Saturday," So I will Moped on over and take a look.



To: JohnM who wrote (53188)10/19/2002 2:10:24 PM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 281500
 
<<...Pollack offers a compelling argument that the United States must meet all these conditions if an invasion is to succeed without creating equal or greater dangers. He has set the bar very high, and it is doubtful that any United States administration could clear it...>>

Good point...maybe its time for folks in Washington to CAREFULLY EXAMINE some of the potential unintended consequences of 'pre-emptively invading' another country like Iraq.



To: JohnM who wrote (53188)10/19/2002 2:20:44 PM
From: stockman_scott  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500
 
Subverting the UN

by Richard Falk & David Krieger
comment
The Nation
November 4, 2002 issue
thenation.com

As a healthy response to the Bush Administration's war policies, the number of people taking to the streets in protest is increasing with each step toward war. These protesters realize that they do not want the United States to initiate a pre-emptive and illegal war, but perhaps they do not yet realize that they are also fighting to retain an international order based on multilateralism, the rule of law and the United Nations itself.

To save the UN from the Administration's destructive and radical unilateralism, other key nations will have to stand up to its bullying. France, Russia and China, because of their veto power in the Security Council, could withhold legal authority for America to proceed to war. Whether they will exercise this power, given the pressure they're under from the Administration, remains to be seen. But if one or more of them does so, the Administration would be faced with acting in direct contravention of the Security Council, with a probable serious erosion of Congressional and public support. If it were to go ahead with war, it could deliver a death knell not only to Iraq but also to the UN itself. It is emblematic of US global waywardness that it is necessary to hope for a veto to uphold the legitimacy and effectiveness of the UN as a force for peace but to also be concerned that Administration threats of unilateral military action could render the veto ineffective and thereby the role of the Security Council largely meaningless.

The United States was instrumental in forming the UN and was a strong supporter of the organization until the Reagan presidency, when that Administration's hostility toward the UN became pronounced. Reagan's indictment of it as dominated by Third World concerns was largely rhetorical and symbolic but included calls for budgetary downsizing and withdrawal from UNESCO because of its alleged corruption and anti-American bias. In the Bush I presidency this antipathy was connected with US global economic interests; the Administration used American muscle to close down the Center on Transnational Corporations as a favor to multinationals. This confrontational approach was briefly reversed by Bush Senior's use of the UN to mandate war against Iraq in 1991 to oust it from Kuwait. At the time, Bush surprised the world by sounding briefly like a second coming of Woodrow Wilson with his call for "a new world order" centered upon reliance on the collective security mechanisms of the UN Security Council to meet the challenges of aggression. When the dust settled at the end of the Gulf War, however, the White House realized that it did not want such global responsibilities or to build such expectations about an enhanced UN role. The language of a new world order was deliberately, as one high-level official then expressed it, "put back on the shelf."

Bill Clinton's 1992 presidential campaign seemed to offer prospects for enhanced recourse to the UN to address humanitarian challenges of the sort that were arising in the Balkans and sub-Saharan Africa. But as President, Clinton contributed to the post-cold war decline of the UN by abruptly reversing course on Somalia in 1993 after eighteen Americans were killed in the Black Hawk Down incident. Rather than accept responsibility for that debacle, the Clinton Administration blamed the UN. That Administration also turned its back on UN pleas for a commitment to stop genocide in Rwanda a year later, when a small contingent of UN troops could have prevented the mass murders there. The Clinton security team further sabotaged a Rwanda intervention by threatening to halt US funding for UN peacekeeping operations if the UN took on new peacekeeping commitments.

The Clinton White House expressed only lukewarm support for the UN role in Bosnia, while undermining support for UN action by providing arms to the Croats and Muslims. In Iraq, the Administration undermined and corrupted the UN inspection process by using US inspectors to conduct espionage. Clinton disappointingly celebrated the fiftieth anniversary of the UN by delivering an uninspired speech notable for its Wall Street calls for "downsizing" and "doing more with less," and by turning increasingly to NATO to carry out what it deemed humanitarian interventions, culminating in the NATO war in Kosovo and Serbia in 1999. This war on behalf of the Kosovars was notable for the absence of any UN authorization for the use of force and a deliberate US decision to circumvent the UN in anticipation of Russian and Chinese vetoes.

But while the Clinton Administration did serious damage to the UN, the Bush presidency--with its repudiation of even minimal multilateralism, its hostility to existing arms control treaties, its rejection of the Kyoto Protocol on global warming and its efforts to undermine the International Criminal Court--created a pattern of anti-UN diplomacy never before seen in Washington. It represents a view that American power and resources should serve exclusively national strategic interests.

Since September 11, the Bush team has selectively used the UN to build a united front against global terrorism, specifically against Al Qaeda. Such an initiative led to a degree of formal multilateralism in the war in Afghanistan but has run into resistance since. In the months after Bush's 2002 State of the Union address--which first outlined the "axis of evil" approach to the post-Afghanistan challenge and which made no reference whatsoever to the UN--Bush, in speech after speech, gave the impression that "regime change" in Baghdad was a matter of White House discretion. It was then that establishment realists, most prominently Brent Scowcroft and James Baker, sounded the alarm. The Bush war planners seemed quickly to realize that this time they had pushed unilateralism too far even for their Republican constituency, let alone their overseas allies. Congress and the UN were brought into the act, with obvious ambivalence, and the Administration shifted its overt call from "regime change" to "disarmament" via "coercive inspection." Both Congress and the UN Security Council are being asked to underwrite this approach, and Congress has already capitulated.

There are two main ways to ruin the UN: to ignore its relevance in war/peace situations, or to turn it into a rubber stamp for geopolitical operations of dubious status under international law or the UN Charter. Before September 11, Bush pursued the former approach; since then--by calling on the UN to provide the world's remaining superpower with its blessings for an unwarranted war--the latter.

Also damaging are the evident double standards and hypocrisy of the US call for enforcement of UN resolutions against Iraq, given consistent US unwillingness to do anything to implement the stream of Security Council resolutions directing Israel to withdraw from occupied Palestinian territories, to dismantle illegal settlements and to apply the Geneva Conventions governing military occupation. Ironically, Security Council Resolution 687, cited by Bush in his justification for war against Iraq, also recalls the objective of establishing a nuclear weapons-free zone in the Middle East and of working toward making the region free of all weapons of mass destruction. While these are clearly worthwhile objectives, no mention is made by the Bush Administration of Israel's longstanding possession of nuclear weapons.

While the United States engages in such hypocrisy, it is attempting to use UN resolutions improperly to justify an illegal pre-emptive war against Iraq. Resolution 687, which welcomed the restoration of Kuwaiti sovereignty and set forth peace terms after the Gulf War, says nothing about the conditions under which additional force could be used against Iraq. Rather, it concludes by stating that the Security Council "decides to remain seized of the matter and to take such further steps as may be required for the implementation of the present resolution and to secure peace and security in the region." Thus, any unilateral US enforcement action without Security Council approval would be illegal.

If the Bush Administration pushes a resolution authorizing force through the UN Security Council, it will demonstrate only that it has succeeded in bending the organization to its will--in effect subverting the UN the same way it subverted the integrity of the US Congress. It is doubly ruining the UN by its domineering posture and through its repeated assertion that if the UN resists, it will act unilaterally. The worst aspect of the Bush II legacy may be its vicious undermining of multilateralism and international law in general, and of the United Nations in particular.
___________________________________

Richard Falk, chair of the board of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, is the author of, most recently, Religion and Humane Global Governance (Palgrave). His The Great Terror War is forthcoming from Interlink.

David Krieger is a founder and president of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation (www.wagingpeace.org).



To: JohnM who wrote (53188)10/19/2002 3:23:00 PM
From: carranza2  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500
 
I find it unusual that the NYT critic did not mention another justification for invading Iraq which I'm not even sure Pollack makes i.e., the sheer lunacy in allowing Saddam or Uday to think, rightly or wrongly, that they might control the destinies of Western economies because nukes would permit Iraq to control the flow of a lot of Mideast oil.

Should Iraq end up with nukes, there is nothing to prevent it from going after Kuwait and even Saudi Arabia's oil fields if Saddam believes that we would never be the first users of atomic weapons and that we would never expose our troops to atomic warfare. Ergo, Saddam probably believes that armed with nukes, he can control ME oil fields because he can deter us from dislodging him from them. This is IMO the essence of his thinking.

And it is seriously flawed thinking since his use of nukes brings about the end of Iraq. However, as Pollack has pointed out, it is folly to think of Saddam as a brilliant strategist.

And that is the nub of the problem. Saddam is stupid and dangerous.

He's has to be replaced before he embarks on another Gulf War or Iraq-Iran war, both of which were fiascos. Saddam has never lost an opportunity to do a stupid thing on a grand scale.

Saddam doesn't seem to learn from his mistakes. He is quite capable of believing and acting upon the notion that having nukes in his arsenal will give him control over the flow of Mideast oil and the resulting control over Western economic destinies which will enthrone him as the new Saladin.

He might be wrong, he might be right.

Either way, we can't let him act on such a notion. Better to take the medicine now than later, when the costs will surely be higher.



To: JohnM who wrote (53188)10/20/2002 3:43:44 PM
From: Win Smith  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 281500
 
John, I went looking for a review of Matlock's book, and found instead a few more reviews written by him that might be of local interest. He seems to be quite diplomatic in general.

Working backward, in query.nytimes.com he takes on Hitchen's Kissinger book and another one. He is sympathetic to K, and I give him credit for a fairly even-handed discussion.

In a related vein, he takes on Shawcross's latest book in query.nytimes.com . A simlilarly judicious tone prevails. I particularly liked his conclusion:

It is obvious that the world community has not yet created effective international instruments to protect human rights. But the problem may be that human rights can be protected effectively only by the societies in which people live. How the international community can best support the development of civil societies and encourage responsible political leadership is one of the most daunting tasks facing humanity as it enters the new millennium. Pace Shawcross, the answer is likely to involve less military intervention from the outside and greater use of nonviolent political, economic and, especially, moral instruments.

On Vietnam, a recently revived topic, he reviewed McNamara's book and another in query.nytimes.com :

President George Bush's patient work to attract public and Congressional support, his diplomacy to build an international coalition and secure United Nations authority, and his decision to apply intense military force from the outset of hostilities were essential prerequisites to his victory in the gulf war. While that war did not end all the problems in the region, Bush was able to distinguish those issues amenable to a military solution (repelling the invasion of another country) from those that are less likely to be solved by military means (removing a foreign leader, arbitrating a civil war).

Examples of failures when these lessons are ignored are legion. The Carter Administration misunderstood the Soviet mind-set and failed to deter the invasion of Afghanistan. The Reagan Administration misunderstood the Libyan leader Muammar el-Qaddafi's thinking and avoided direct communication, with the result that limited military actions provoked rather than deterred terrorist acts.


This guy obviously ain't cut out for a second career as bloviating pundit. More directly related to Matlock's personal experience, we got query.nytimes.com on a recent Russian study. I'll quote the lead on that one:

As Russia experiences a rocky transition from Communism to whatever the future may hold, the public has been assaulted by a litany of simplistic explanations for its obvious difficulties. Russia, some say, never experienced the Renaissance, Reformation, Enlightenment or Age of Discovery and therefore cannot be expected to develop the sort of society produced by these formative experiences in West and Central Europe. Some say, in addition, that Russia has always been expansionist and therefore is likely to resume an imperial course whenever its strength allows. And then there is the old argument, often combined with the other two assertions, that Russia is not part of ''Europe'' or ''Western Civilization'' since it borrowed its religion from Constantinople rather than Rome.

In ''Russia Under Western Eyes'' Martin Malia takes on and demolishes these and other cliches that continue to infest our debate about what went wrong in Russia. Western opinion, he points out, has traditionally ''demonized or divinized'' Russia ''less because of her real role in Europe than because of the fears and frustrations, or the hopes and aspirations, generated within European society by its own domestic problems.''


Finally, he takes on some coverage of the pre-9/11 foreign demon of choice among the right, China, in the form of Chris Patten's account. query.nytimes.com

The claim that Asia's economic success resulted from specific Asian virtues has suffered a severe blow since the monetary and economic setbacks that became apparent last fall. Even so, the fallacy of this argument should have been obvious earlier. As Patten contends, what brought rapid economic development to the Asian ''tigers'' was the same thing that brought it to countries elsewhere: capitalism, hard work, frugality, limited government. There was no Asian miracle; if development was more rapid in some Asian countries than it had been in the West, that was because modern technology and communication have accelerated the process of change and because these countries were playing catch-up. It takes longer for a pioneer to clear the way than for late starters to follow a well-marked trail.

Patten heaps particular scorn on the thesis that authoritarian government fits the Asian character better than democratic institutions. It is understandable that dictators, their sycophants and those who aspire to dictatorship would make the argument; it is harder to explain why intelligent scholars and businessmen should be taken in by it. After all, in country after country we have seen that as people become more affluent they demand a part in their own governance. If this is denied, governments eventually fall (witness South Korea and Indonesia) and sometimes the entire fabric of the state is left in tatters, as in most of the former Soviet Union.


All in all, it makes me want to read more of Matlock. I imagine he's got some real stories to tell about secret war cabinet head Perle, but I doubt we'll ever see those in print. Matlock has also written a bunch of stuff for NYRB, see nybooks.com , you may be familiar with some of those. Finally, one last note from elsewere on the web, quite appropriate for the former George F. Kennan Professor at the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton. : globetrotter.berkeley.edu

George Kennan and the "X" Article

Now you come back to the academy, in a sense, and I've already noted that you are the George F. Kennan Professor at the Institute for Advanced Study. I guess a way to talk about what happened on your watch as ambassador is to talk about George Kennan and his famous "X" article. Did the namesake of the chair that you hold call it right in that "X" article?


Absolutely. I've not agreed with all of the positions he has taken since then, although he's a very good friend of mine and I respect him greatly. But the "X" article I think was one of the most brilliant pieces of diplomatic reportage. It was not just the "X" article, but his long telegram, the official communication that preceded it. The "X" article was then doctored for the public -- it was the same arguments.

And this appeared in Foreign Affairs in 1948.

That's right. But his long telegram, which was sent and on which the "X" article was based, was really the key document which set U.S. policy. He convinced the policy makers on this policy which, broadly speaking, was our policy until the end of the Cold War. And it proceeded precisely as he predicted. Now at the time I think George thought that things would happen a little faster than they did. But the fact is, what he recommended was that we keep pressure on the Soviet Union so that they could not, by expansion, seem to justify an irrational system and thereby force them to confront the contradictions of that system. And that's exactly what happened. He predicted that if they were forced to confront the contradictions, the system would, in effect, collapse or moderate itself of its own accord. This happened. Now I think it happened a couple of decades after he had hoped it would, but that doesn't really matter. The time scales in this sort of thing are not important. The fact is, containment was our policy. It was successfully carried out, even when we were sometimes using methods that Kennan didn't approve of subsequently. The Soviet Union did collapse eventually, and certainly communist control of the Soviet Union collapsed as a result of having to confront these inner inconsistencies.


It's good to see at least one Reaganaut willing to give credit where credit is due on the end of the cold war. Not that that could possibly make any difference if you pay any attention to the legions of bloviating neocon pundits, but I imagine that when real history gets written, the real historians will pay a little more attention to Matlock than they do to the pundits. Doesn't seem to be the kind of guy that will rate many mentions by the local guardians of right wing dogma and self-evidently "correct" policy prescriptions, though. Matlock, like many others, just doesn't seem to be able to get with the "War Now!" program.