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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (6425)	10/23/2002 10:34:10 PM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 95526

UH UH UH UH UH !!! That kind of bublology leads to optimism - and that can make you go blind !!ggg Actually it is about time for Mr.Market to fool all. In 98 October 8 th was the low - Cohu bottomed out on Oct 18 and most everybody wrote off Q4 98 - so the tax man couldn't take the precious cash they clung to. Q1 99 backlog popped and it never looked back. The fact that some great investors,have finally unwound some longs in the face of this unbelievable pop - which can't be justified by anything but hope - is perhaps the best sign that old lows will be the lows. I'm pretty much an expert at this, cause in the past -I've lightened up and started sleeping better, just in time to be cursing an uptrend myself.That's just the truth and I'm not real proud to admit it - but that is how it often times happens. Bob

To: The Ox who wrote (6425)	10/23/2002 10:35:15 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95526

Thomas Weisel must feel awful. :) G. [end]

To: The Ox who wrote (6425)	10/23/2002 10:38:57 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95526

We have a rally that is not at all largely supported by anything being seen in today's press releases. Obviously the market appears to be looking beyond the average press release. Of course the market could be right if it is looking beyond the next couple of quarters to better days ahead. It could also be wrong. Is anyone else bothered by the declining volume on up days for the NASDAQ market as this rally advances? BTW, good question. I still think this is a bear market rally but I am the last person who will ever believe he is infallible. RtS

To: The Ox who wrote (6425)	10/23/2002 10:54:41 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95526

>> Have we hit a bottom in this sector? (stock price wise, not necessarily orders/billings wise) Maybe we're seeing the expression of hope that earnings will improve next Q, even if bookings and billings do not. As long as there are profits, even if small, balance sheets will improve. Profits also guarantee that the profitable companies will survive this downturn, and strongly prosper when the up turn comes. It seems like anyone can understand that. But I think sometimes speculators overlook that fact. Especially the ones with a proclivity to short. Stocks dropped before earnings season started because nervous share holders feared their companies finances would have deteriorated - jeopardizing survival. Once that doubt is removed, investors will be very tolerant of high P/E's and the various other valuation ratios. So to answer the question. Yes we've hit bottom - unless the next Q reports show deterioration. If January reports show higher profits - as I expect, due to cost cutting and no double dip -, then euphoria will reign again.