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To: carranza2 who wrote (24548)	10/25/2002 12:05:34 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Hello carranza2, <<(b)China will export goods and then services, but will have a hard time defining its foreign policy>> ... China's foreign policy had evolved from 'get rid of foreign concessions in China', and 'export revolution' and 'dig tunnels deep, store rice' to 'global integration so as to export stuff', which requires 'peace and resources', and just in case, 'build more and better bombs, plus throw in a navy', and 'absorption of Taiwan, Diayutai, and Spratleys, eventually, when the time is ripe'. Pretty simple and straight forward when viewed from this side of the pond. As to <<high-margin pharmaceutical>>, realistically, there is no market for the high-margin pharmaceutical of any appreciable scale for non-essential applications or exotic illnesses, especially when government social medicine reimbursement budget gets crunched by deflation/devaluation/depreciation and WAT-WOT-whatnot all around the world. OTOH, the GM food margin is up for grabs by many big players. <<electronic>> category can be crossed out in its entirety, because (a) it requires a healthy consumer base, and (b) inexpensive manufacturing; somewhat mutually conflicting requirements. <<entertainment>> will be made in Australia, New Zealand, Ireland, ... in a process of localization/globalization, especially as the technology becomes simpler and easier to use, and as pools of funding gets spread out over the geographies. And so it will have to be soldiers, in the main. I just saw a CNBC clip on ROTC enrollment in Princeton up 400%, in line with dictates of trend. As to victory in value wars (civilization war by any other name), it will be very difficult, to the asymptotic point of impossible, especially because after 2 decades of expected fighting, people will be fighting for the sake of fighting, having long forgotten what the struggle is all about. <<Europe>> you may be right on this one. I suppose Europe can simply step to the side and actively promote Palestinian State and thus avoid most problems, leaving England to do house-to-house fight in N.Ireland and in London. Pondering more about <<AustraAsia>>, they may actually have their hands full with Indonesia should the civilization war progress much further beyond the current point. I am having second thoughts about my AUD allocation. Chugs, Jay

To: carranza2 who wrote (24548)	10/25/2002 5:27:19 PM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

re d) >>soldiers<< and >>The US will also export values<< ... the values grew out of seven articles (it was seven, if I remember right, make it less than 10, as in 10 commandments), put down in what can only be seen as vacuum of N. America of that time. What I mean to say, it's something like a plant, that took its kind of soil and its time as well (see slavery etc). If the soldiers mean the same thing as GIs in Germany after 1945, I am all for it, even more, if one can avoid 1939-1945 kind of experience. re e) Middle east and oil: I'd factor in Canadian sand oil shales ie diminished importance of ME. Plus a shift away from oil as primary, raw source of energy. re a) Europe - I see it as work in progress. I dont see this place as something on cruise control. And yes, if 9/11-kind of events start to happen here, there'll be some acceleration, whatever the historical slope we're on. RegZ dj

To: carranza2 who wrote (24548)	10/25/2002 8:30:47 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Hello Carranza2, Continuing our discussion here Message 18157303 , I made a cursory scan of current news, and see that: (a) The crux of the entertainment industry can potentially be out-sourced to the most unlikely places Message 18159416 (b) Wars and battles often have unintended consequences, and the civilization wars can easily meld with the drug wars in WAT-WOT style, revolving around oil at its core Message 18159449 and Message 18159494 (c) Bio-tech is even more easily out-sourced than electronics Message 18159365 (d) China foreign policy is apparently very much as I had described Message 18159430 because it is predicated on the theory that when picked on, weaker groups fight back, Message 18159499 , and so it is better to focus on the economic reform, maybe even doing a postal office IPO Message 18159355 (e) The weaker groups fight back ... often ferociously, men and women together, because they have little to lose, as the man says here Message 18159512 , ‘I swear by God we are more keen on dying than you are keen on living’. Why do I believe the man? That is mighty keen, given how keen I am about living. My updated construction of the likely future is that Russia will be exhausted in its fight to maintain control in Chechnya faster than they lost the will to fight in Afghanistan (approx. 10 years) simply because the war for the other side is “forever, until victory or death” and for Russia is “until we get tired or broke”. Looking back in history, most wars have a financial dimension that seriously impacted the eventual outcome. If the US figures on importing oil from Russia to reduce dependence on the ME, and Europe figures on the same thing, along with Japan and China and India, my guess would be (a) Russian oil facilities will come under attack, and (b) The pressed buyers will have to give Russia financial aid in its war against the Chechens. That will not last long because much of the money will end up in Cyprus or Bahamas. I recently added Sasol of S.Africa to my portfolio. They convert coal into petrol. In sum, wars are complicated and messy affairs, unlike battles, and civilization wars more so, especially when such wars originated from the days of Crusades, back about 900 years ago. Chugs, Jay

To: carranza2 who wrote (24548)	10/25/2002 8:47:33 PM
From: ig	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

"The US will also export values--don't laugh--which will change the face of the world, despite criticism that it doesn't live by them. These values include religious tolerance, enterprise, freedom of the individual, rule of law, etc., and will slowly change the world for the better. Hint: Think of values as tangible economic things which have utterly predictable economic consequences." Right on! ig

To: carranza2 who wrote (24548)	10/29/2002 9:47:56 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Hello Carranza2, The world will likely be flooded with exports of various sorts. Following up ... <<(d)US will export ... entertainment>> Message 18172285 <<(f) Russia, ... And oil>> Message 18172277 <<(h) India, ... geopolitical turmoil>> Message 18172293 Chugs, Jay

To: carranza2 who wrote (24548)	10/30/2002 3:05:25 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Carranza2, I do not suppose CB can be convinced to switch her Range Rover for a GM SUV:0) GM to Use Engines From China In SUVs Built at Canada Plant online.wsj.com By GREGORY L. WHITE Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL DETROIT -- General Motors Corp. plans to import engines from a joint venture in China to install in a Chevrolet sport-utility vehicle to be built in Canada starting in 2004, the first imports of Chinese engines for GM's U.S. vehicles, Buzz Hargrove, president of the Canadian Auto Workers said Monday. GM spokeswoman Debbie Frakes declined to comment on the auto maker's plans. She said GM doesn't currently import engines from China to the U.S., although it does import V-6 engines for some North American vehicles from the United Kingdom and brings in transmissions from plants in France and Hungary. Mr. Hargrove said the engine plans came up in contract talks with the No. 1 auto maker last month. He added GM officials said the engines would come from a plant in Shanghai that already makes the engines for the Chinese market but is running well below capacity. "It was hard for us to argue they should duplicate the investment here," he said. The V-6 engines will go in the Chevy Equinox small SUV, which hits the market in early 2004 and will be made at a plant in Ontario that is a joint venture between GM and its Japanese affiliate Suzuki Motor Co. The China plant is a joint venture with Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp. Eric Fedawa, a consultant at CSM Worldwide, said GM's Shanghai plant, built in the mid-1990s at a cost of $1.5 billion, has annual capacity of about 150,000 V-6 engines, but is making only about a third of that number for Buick sedans and minivans GM sells in China. The two GM plants that make the same engine in North America are running at or above capacity, he noted, leaving little room for expansion Mr. Fedawa said he doesn't expect GM to make a major shift of engine production to China, even though labor costs there are lower than in North America. "China's a long way away, especially if you're shipping something as big as an engine," he said. This case "is more of a capacity issue." GM and other U.S. auto makers are moving heavily to increase sourcing of other parts from China, where costs are dramatically lower, however. Write to Gregory L. White at greg.white@wsj.com Updated October 29, 2002