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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (14870)	10/28/2002 10:05:02 AM
From: Steve Lee	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 19219

"In the latest week thru October 11th (delayed 2 weeks), 67 million more shares were bought and buried" How do you measure that? Is it purely from COT? With funds having been at record low cash levels recently, and outflows exceeding inflows as per AMG and TrimTabs, I would think we have been seeing distribution, not accumulation. But there is no way of knowing for sure. I am interested as to how you arrive at your conclusion?

To: J.T. who wrote (14870)	10/28/2002 9:15:56 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

RE> the exact same figure as 1974 over the 35 week period.<< The jury is still out, after a brief rally in OCT of 74 the market went on to make a new Low, Dec 16th of that year. ------------ fortune.com Buffet in the above article talks like; "Why in the world would a company be assuming 7.5% when it could get nearly 10.5% on government bonds? The answer is that rear-view mirror again: Investors who'd been through the collapse of the Nifty Fifty in the early 1970s were still feeling the pain of the period and were out of date in their thinking about returns. They couldn't make the necessary mental adjustment. "" And about how dumb institution buyers are on a whole, and how people see in the rear view mirror "what they believe" and don't see what they don't want to believe. ------------ What's the point about using 74 ? why not 87 the market crashed harder in 87. AS for comparing detailed data from long ago to what is happening today.. I've always said that was a big mistake, and the further you go back the bigger the mistake gets. At least Buffet uses a general overview broken into large time frames. But look at the amount of shares out standing in 74...and then the amount outstanding today..I can' find the data. But even so; if short sales did peak in OCT of 74, that wasn't the bottom many must have covered on the run up, and not been short when the bottom really did come, in Dec. --------- There are many things not the same as they were even in the 80s. Out of the 50 states , I think there is only 3 that did not change their laws in the mid 90s to jump in the stock market. You need to look at how much and fast most these states went from a budget surplus to a huge deficit. Now they can't print money like the Fed can so all the so called tax cuts by the fed won't offset half of the tax increases that are getting ready to hit at state and local levels. 4 States have under funded retirement plans that exceed their entire buget..the report isn't really old but then again it is, you see they don't report in real time..by the time it's released it's almost a year old. -------------- We may have made a bottom in early OCT, hell I was buying but I'm not about to say it was the final bottom and that the train is not going to back up some more. We may not make a final bottom for another 10 to 15ys Most of the crap that happened in Japan, that every one is saying can't happen here, is slowly happening. Jim.

To: J.T. who wrote (14870)	10/29/2002 2:05:09 AM
From: Alex MG	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 19219

JT my man, you've been quoting data about NYSE members buying, for, how long now? while the prices of equities just continue to grind lower and lower... the party is long over, it was a blast while it lasted, but there is mucho hangover left to work off... do you know what the real P/E ratio is on the S&P after deducting option expenses and pension liabilities??... ya know? that earnings thing... in the long run earnings DO matter do you ever study cycles?... hello? earth to JT!... ground-control to major Tom! <g>

To: J.T. who wrote (14870)	11/3/2002 10:36:19 PM
From: LTK007	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

<<The elusive BOTTOM has come and gone and most will miss this continued massive leg up as it frustrates those trying to get on board the long train on any pullback. Best Regards, J.T.>> your post that includes the above quote is going into my storage bin. I feel confident to the extreme that i will with "devilish" impishness re-post your post sometime in 2003 to establish you are wrong. Mind you you are NOT predicting "a rally", you are saying firmly the we are going on a 2year rip-roaring run-up JUST like after the 74 bottom. I, myself, see zero correlation between now and 74( but gawd forbid i happen to think that SPX trailing P/E hit 7-1 in 74, is of some significance.; fool that i am). But the many are going bananas thinking this is it and loading up as it goes up on LTBH terms will be fried. And that is VERY SAD. Max