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To: zonder who wrote (1507)	10/31/2002 10:34:49 AM
From: Condor	Respond to of 6901

I understand that the CDN economy has been the outperformer of the G-7 for the last couple of years and only now is it showing any signs of weakening. Our dollar never reflected this strength and allowed us to stay strong apparently.( Manuf. costs in CDN dollars and revenue in US dollars) We do 85% of our foreign trade with the US. 1 billion $ per day of trade crosses the border. We send them real stuff and they send us little pieces of green paper. (they have a large trade imbalance with us). So...trade war.....we be's bery bery carefull. C

To: zonder who wrote (1507)	10/31/2002 10:57:53 AM
From: frankw1900	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6901

exchange rates have a lot to do with interest rates and the sunken consumer confidence figures of the other day and the expectation of an interest rate cut by the Fed next week are pushing the USD lower as we speak. Zonder, Railcar loadings up, chemical bulk carriage up, highway truck traffic far above recession levels, inflation (despite all drivel spoken about deflation) up, Fed lowering permanent bank reserves (or at least, being very stingy). I say the fed isn't going to cut interest rates. Well, it shouldn't cut its rate. Its rate is effectively zero, anyway. Japanese went that route - lot of good it's done them. (Personally I think Fed ought to get out of the rate setting business entirely. But that's another topic).

To: zonder who wrote (1507)	10/31/2002 1:29:39 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 6901

Thanks Z, but the Pommy Pound is not my cup of tea. My US$ have been sitting at the front door of the NZ$ waiting for a better deal - waiting for a few months now. Might have to simply wait for J P Morgan, Citibank and General Electric to finish their swooning process, which seems likely to take another 2 years judging from the shape of their graph and comparing that with the many other graphs from the fast-acting dot.bombs to the slower telecosmic collapse to the long cycle Dowsters. The curves all show a gradual acceptance, over a period of 2.5 years so far, that the amazing profits to be had everywhere are over, and worse, it might be a matter of holding onto a little bit of capital, never mind any gains. Such as siliconinvestor.com I still think the USA is the best bet in the longer run [China notwithstanding and I'm keeping a close eye on it]. My guess for some time [4 years] has been that when the crunch inevitably comes, which it now has, the time to buy will be when interest rates are on the way back up again. That should be sometime next year [though I had thought it would be earlier this year - everything takes longer than I think]. Superficially, the US$ looks as though it should fall, but Uncle Al KBE is pixelating billions of fresh dollars and they are being absorbed by the world and STILL people worry about deflation. I suspect he can go on doing that for quite a while yet. It's a free lunch for America. No wonder obesity is such a problem. Mqurice