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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (6611)	11/1/2002 10:14:53 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95530

Gottfried, As usual, thanks for the updated charts. Certainly the data looks "OK" - if not more than OK. Next week ought to be real interesting in seeing if this recent uptrend in stock prices continues. Don

To: Gottfried who wrote (6611)	11/1/2002 10:15:12 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Respond to of 95530

>> chip companies dedicated a smaller percentage of sales to equipment Gottfried, thanks for the charts. Maybe it is time to buy into chip makers or users of chips, until the excess equipment gets utilized. Sarmad

To: Gottfried who wrote (6611)	11/2/2002 10:44:33 AM
From: Alastair McIntosh	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95530

Hi Gottfried. The 3 charts you referenced do little to suggest good times ahead for the SCE group. Chip sales for this year will probably be up only 2% over last year. With end market forecasts predicting weak growth in 2003 the best part of this cycles growth in chip sales is behind us. We will probably see growth peak around the end of this year and your chart home.attbi.com will start its decline. Peaking IC sales growth can be expected to put pressure on share prices as the market will start to price in lower growth. The worst part is that as IC sales growth peak late this year or early next year capacity utilization will be at a dismal 65 to 70%. Not exactly a growth scenario. Concerning your chart home.attbi.com indicating chip companies dedicated a smaller percentage of sales to equipment, get used to it. This represent the future. Chip companies have declining cash flows to sales ratios. Combine this with 300mm efficiencies and the ratio of capital equipment spending to sales will be under continued pressure. Early next year it will become apparent that there will be very little (if any) increase in fab equipment spending in 2003. Combine this with the current runup in the SCE group it appears to me that another wonderful shorting opportunity is in the making.