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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alastair McIntosh who wrote (6624)	11/2/2002 11:20:39 AM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95530

RE: "...the best part of this cycles growth in chip sales is behind us." Since I missed it, please tell me when "the best part" was. RE: "We will probably see growth peak around the end of this year..." We are "around the end of this year" and most forecasts are for a flat 4th quarter with a pickup in 2003. RE: "Chip companies have declining cash flows to sales ratios." This is typical when sales fall in a downturn and probably doesn't reflect any secular trend. In fact, when sales start improving cash flows to sales will advance.

To: Alastair McIntosh who wrote (6624)	11/2/2002 2:55:21 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95530

The worst part is that as IC sales growth peak late this year or early next year capacity utilization will be at a dismal 65 to 70%. Not exactly a growth scenario. Some people predicted capacity utilization of 100% for all of 2000 and 2001....guess what happened? When the economy and the market turns, all predictions become worthless. a smaller percentage of sales to equipment, get used to it. This represent the future Why? You back this up with no data whatsoever. Boom and busts are a part of the industry; and in case you weren't aware, we are currently at the bottom of a bust. it appears to me that another wonderful shorting opportunity is in the making. Go for it by all means!