Hi D. Long; Re: "The analogy would fit if we would've doubled the number of troops deployed to S. Korea and Japan in the last few months ..."
We haven't doubled the number of troops in the Kuwaiti theatre in the last few months, so the analogy does hold. Hell, we shipped 5000 troops into Jordan a few months ago, and that was supposed to signal the start of an attack into Iraq, but when the exercises were done, they came home, no attack.
Right now the diplomatic situation prevents any chance of war within the next 90 days [unless somehow the ghost of Hitler takes over US foreign policy, and influences us to make sudden blitzkrieg attacks while simultaneously talking peace.] Soon after that, the weather will be inconvenient, and the warheads will start talking about having a war in 2004, LOL.
Re: "... and had several air craft carriers steaming into the Sea of Japan, out of schedule."
I suppose you're talking about this:
USS Constellation Will Go To Persian Gulf Early
SanDiego Channel.com, October 16, 2002
The San Diego-based aircraft carrier USS Constellation and its support ships will depart for the Persian Gulf earlier than originally expected amid continuing preparations for a possible war with Iraq, it was reported Wednesday.
The Constellation, originally scheduled to depart in early 2003, will now leave port in November, the San Diego Union-Tribune reported.
Joined by other U.S. Navy ships, the Constellation will start a final training exercise Thursday, according to the newspaper.
The ship will spend about two weeks off of Southern California practicing bombing missions, Tomahawk cruise-missile strikes and maritime interceptions, the newspaper reported.
When the exercise is completed on Oct. 30, the Constellation will return to San Diego for several days before departing for the Persian Gulf, military officials told the Union-Tribune.
The Constellation returned from its last Persian Gulf deployment in September of 2001.
Normally, aircraft carriers are deployed for six months and then have about 18 months to conduct maintenance and training before their next deployment.
The USS Constellation is home to about 5,000 sailors and Marines and carries about 70 aircraft.
Joining the Constellation will be the San Diego-based Naval cruisers the USS Valley Forge and the USS Bunker Hill as well as the destroyers the USS Milius and the USS Higgins and the frigate USS Thach, according to the Union-Tribune.
Along with the Florida-based USS John F. Kennedy and the Japan-based USS Kitty Hawk, the Constellation is one of only three of the nation's carriers that are not nuclear-powered.
thesandiegochannel.com
This whole thing is hilarious. We can't have war for the next 90 days for diplomatic reasons, but you think they're sending the Constellation to the Persian Gulf "several months" early so that we can have a war?
Let me try and explain what is going on to you.
It is the purpose of the news media to sell news. They do this largely by making big deals out of routine events. The President and Military are all saying that no decision has been made to go to war. Colin Powell just said that it will take months to search Iraq for weapons. Given this long delay, why would the US be hot to send a carrier to the Gulf right now? This must seem like quite the "dot" to connect to you, but the fact is that aircraft carriers sail to the Persian Gulf several times per year, and have been doing this for more than a decade.
Sending an aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf is a routine event. There are always US aircraft carriers there. When one arrives, another leaves. Let me repeat: The standard reason for sending an aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf is so that one that is already there can come back to the US. Now, in the face of this fact, let's think about why the military would send an aicraft carrier to the Persian Gulf early, which is what the whole point of this story is. I can think of two reasons: (likely) There schedule got messed up by the Afghan war, and they need to relieve some other carrier that's been at sea too long; (unlikely) There's another aircraft carrier that wasn't able to meet its scheduled deployment, and they consequently needed this one to move up its deployment date.
Now, with these notes in mind, let's take a look at the aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf. According to CobaltBlue, the list back in early October was as follows:
USS Abraham Lincoln and USS George Washington are already there.
USS Roosevelt was there, back in port, maintenance work.
USS Carl Vinson undergoing shakedown cruises, getting ready for action.
USS Nimitz is in the Pacific Northwest.
USS Reagan still under construction; USS Dwight D. Eisenhower communications equipment being upgraded; USS Kennedy was there, had electrical problems and is scheduled for repairs starting in January; USS Enterprise at Newport News being refitted; USS Kitty Hawk permanently forward deployed in Japan appears to be in port, ready to go; and the USS Constellation is scheduled to be deployed to the Persian Gulf this year. #reply-18073973
The Abraham Lincoln deployed on July 24, 2002. Six months after that is January 24, 2003. I fully expect them to come back and continue on their usual schedule, without starting a war with Iraq. These are probably the guys that the Constellation will relieve.
The George Washington went through the Suez Canal in mid September, played around in the Mediterranean Sea, stopped in Lisbon, and is to be back in Norfolk in late December. They didn't start a war with Iraq.
In other words, not even 30 days have gone by but CobaltBlue is already wrong about the George Washington being available for war with Iraq. And the deployment of the Constellation is just about right on time for relieving the Abraham Lincoln.
Under the (b) category, there's the Kitty Hawk, whose commander just got sacked for failing to keep the thing "ready to carry out our nation's taskings when ordered". (But Debka didn't tell you about that, did they.)
US carrier captain sacked in Japan
BBC.News, September 4, 2002
The captain of the American aircraft carrier USS Kitty Hawk has been sacked after a series of incidents led his superiors to lose confidence in his ability to lead the crew.
Captain Thomas Hejl's dismissal from the 85,000-tonne craft, based in the Japanese port of Yokosuka, came after a number of crew members were arrested for alleged robbery, assault and drug-smuggling.
US Seventh Fleet commander Vice Admiral Robert Willard said the dismissal was "due to a loss of confidence in Captain Hejl's ability to lead his crew and carry out essential missions and taskings."
"The United States is engaged in a global war against terrorism and it is vital that our forward deployed ships be ready to carry out our nation's taskings when ordered, " he said.
Crew arrests
...
news.bbc.co.uk
But let's make this simple. If the Constellation was brought out early for war, then the war should be "early". If no war has started by January 31, then you agree to publicly admit that you were wrong. Agreed?
-- Carl
P.S. The thing to remember is that peace is the default condition of the military. If you wish to prove that a war is about to start, the onus of proving this is on your side, not on mine. You're the one that is trying to prove that the US government is lying, so you are the one that needs to show that the weapons are being moved at a much higher level than normal, or that there are significantly more carriers in the Persian Gulf than usual, etc.
It's cheap and easy to speculate about these things, but the sad fact is that you guys are jumping to conclusion not only in the absence of sufficient evidence to justify your result, but in the presence of evidence that contradicts you. If getting the Constellation out of port a few months early is so critical for war, then why did the George Washington come home? You have no explanation for this. I have a simple one: there's no war being set up. |
