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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scott_jiminez who wrote (6620)	11/2/2002 8:07:33 AM
From: JSLyons	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95525

Hello Scott, Thanks for your thoughts on the latest run. Two things, however, might be worth noting. First of all, the stock market is widely touted as a leading indicator -- many would say THE leading indicator. At some point -- and I am not prepared to say that we have reached that point -- stock prices will turn up when all else looks bleak(est). Second, the smaller companies that many feared were headed for possible BK have rallied the most fiercely. Investors now seem to think they will survive the downturn and fight another day. My own holdings in this category -- AXTI, VTSS, GGNS, ASYT and even KLIC -- have led the charge in the last weeks. Rgds, Jonathan

To: scott_jiminez who wrote (6620)	11/2/2002 4:31:43 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95525

Scott, <<The sector has probably bottomed and will likely continue to see huge gains for the next 6 months or so.>> I think the bottom "is in", but I'm not sure about the "huge gains" for the next 6 months or so. I think much of the gain has already been made in the past 17 trading days. Not that the market won't go up from here, but on a percentage basis, the gains may not be as good. I've been wrong before, however.<g> << But at least the rally is thrusting those stocks forward with the best prospects for next FY. WRONGO CHIPMUNKS! Look at the 4th and 5th lines of your table: LRCX, with estimated earnings of $0.43 next year is up 100% in the last 17 days while KLIC (hey ole buddy), with anticipated earnings of -$0.83 is up 95% during the same period!>> Based on my experience posting the weekly results for the last few years, what we see happening now is what usually happens, ie, the weaker stocks "swing" more widely, both on the up and down side that the stronger stocks such as AMAT, KLAC and NVLS. <<The market is discounting something, something that none of us are completely aware of quite yet.>> I think it is "discounting" the coming recovery. Certainly we have to believe a recovery is in the future.(If no recovery, ever, in the future, all bets are off) The CEO's and others submit they "cannot see" the recovery yet, but barring some catastrophic event, it is in the future. The only thing we can say with certainty is that whenever that recovery starts to occur, we are 3 months closer now than we were 3 months ago. Don