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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (6635)	11/2/2002 11:01:30 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95526

Brian, the analyst downgrades of AMAT came in 4Q2000 and 1Q2001 investorshub.com As late as August 2000 Cahners-Instat published a story titled "Nothing but blue Skies Ahead". I wish I had saved it. They finally removed it from their web site. Gottfried

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (6635)	11/2/2002 11:28:38 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 95526

Brian, 2 years ago Lehman said this siliconinvestor.com It's good to remember that at the time it all seemed plausible and it was what we wanted to hear. Gottfried

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (6635)	11/3/2002 12:12:41 AM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95526

>> in August of 2000, Morris Chang of TSMC publicly stated that he was sold out of capacity into 2002. Brian, A couple weeks ago Kirk explained how this optimistic mind-set came about. It was the ficticious revenue declared by world-com, enron, dot-coms, etc... that showed a steep upward trend in the demand for electronics. Capacity ramped up, but the demand vanished. It isn't reasonable to expect that demand to return instantly. So I would like to see a discussion on when will current capacity need to be expanded. Whether due to true demand, or obsolescence. >> I am not sure what firm or exactly who you are referring to when you say that the prescient analysts predicted all of this. Setting aside the question of whether the down-turn was predicted or not. Can we instead try to see how an up-turn can be predicted. I don't mean stock prices, but demand for end products and the capacity to make them. So is that demand going to happen next month ? Well, lets see, will any chip makers order new equipment before their revenues reach the levels achieved in 2000 ? Maybe yes for two reasons. New equip is needed based on unit counts. And second, to replace obsolete equip. Assuming Intel is representative of the chip industry, equip sales should not increase in 2003 over 2002. How about that assertion as a point for discussion ? Has any large chip maker announced an INCREASE in 2003 capital budget ? Are there new entrants into the chip field. I think the opposite. IBM Microelectronics I think is consolidating. And I also see news of some Japanese consolidation also. And Motorolla ? aren't they exiting some chip business ? Are we safe in the assertion that total equip spending will be flat in 2003 ? It maybe worth discussing. I think the SOX rally indicates a belief that chip and equip companies will be able to thrive in the current climate. But I'm willing to be disowned of that notion. My opinion here is just general observations. But I can't see upturn in demand for equipment in the next few months. I also don't think it is reasonable to say that because we don't see the demand, then it is really very possible for it to be there - just over the horizon. Sarmad