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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (6642)	11/3/2002 12:13:22 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95526

Setting aside the question of whether the down-turn was predicted or not. Can we instead try to see how an up-turn can be predicted. I don't mean stock prices, but demand for end products and the capacity to make them. Sarmad, here is an article from Forbes that discusses the US broadband pricing issues as an impediment to broadband adoption... we are even below japan in broadband growth rates now. Imo this article says that broadband is artificially depressed due to rboc monopoly-like pricing power. A big reason for the disappointment: price. The U.S. has among the highest broadband prices in the industrialized world. Even in notoriously expensive Japan, monthly bills are about $28 compared with $40 to $50 in the U.S. Two years ago Americans were using broadband at 20 times the rate of the Japanese; now Japan has pulled virtually even and soon will eclipse us. "We've done extensive surveys, and 70% of our users won't switch [to broadband] if it costs them more than $30," says Garry Betty, chief executive of EarthLink (NasdaqNM:ELNK - News) biz.yahoo.com Lizzie

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (6642)	11/3/2002 9:53:30 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95526

Hi Sarmad, I think in general your point on growth being about the same is close enough not to dispute. There are some areas that could well be pockets of strength. These pockets ofstrength ARE VALID AREAS OF GREAT OPPORTUNITY. Even during the downturn of the NAZ, Genesis Microchip had a nice run up as flat panel displays came into personal use vs professional use. Some areas of exceptional growth will be hitched up with Intels transition to 90 nanosecond linewidths by the end of 2004. Some beneficiaries may be : Genus- and their ALD thin film techniques. VSEA - Ion implantation techniques Cohu - Test handler cooling ugradekits to prevent intest meltdowns Egls - Internet based quality control and machine self adjustments?? Yield enhancements may be more in demand than raw Capex. Then you have the Chinese expansion which really is an effort at do it all inland and at .25 micron. So it is perhaps a Merger and Acquisition time period,where the players get stronger or the also rans go away. Klac merged with Tencor in 98 and never looked back in stock price appreciation. Few if any would complain about a tender that worked that kind of magic on any of the stocks we follow. Many smaller stocks have been reduced to penny stocks already, If you don't own your niche and have cash to continue R&D to ensure the leadership role in the next cycle upgrade ( however big that is) - those that do will be willing to wait out the cash burn game and watch you fall behind - without spending a dime. In 98 Cohu had 3 public domestic competitors: 1)Aseco - gone bought up by 2)MCTI (for 16 million -assets mostly) which is now trading below .50 and will most likely be delisted and 3)Aetrium - now trading just over $2.00 walking wounded looking for a place to bleed to death. In a world of consolidation - values may well hold up as the dominance of the survivor is clarified?? Just some thought starters - hopefully to identify some opportinities that are brighter than normal. Bob