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To: LindyBill who wrote (2084)	11/4/2002 3:58:14 AM
From: Bilow	Respond to of 6901

Hi LindyBill; Re: "You keep coming up with Utopian Solutions." I've been saying the same thing for years. There is no "keep coming up with", which is wording that suggests that I dance around with different ideas about Israel. Re: "is easy to solve the world's problems if you can predict Utopia, but not likely to happen, Carl." I don't provide a "solution", what I provide is a "prediction". A solution is something that requires people to act according to a plan in order to solve some problem. That's not at all what I'm about. What I'm providing is a prediction. I take into account the very human nature of the various peoples involved and predict what will happen. South Africa losing its Apartheid was not "utopia", nor was it a "solution". Many white South Africans didn't want to live under the new regime and left the country. They were accepted as immigrants all over the world. The same will happen with the Israelis. And with the final end of terrorism in Israel, I would bet that many people will move back to Israel / Palestine (Jewish, Moslem and Christian). All conflicts are eventually resolved. Their resolution is not through "utopia", but is instead due to one side or another either getting what it wanted, changing what it wants, being killed off, or accepting what it has. These are not "utopias". Israel is a tiny Jewish nation stuck in the middle of a vast Arab Moslem nation, and they will eventually be absorbed by that nation the same way that Hong Kong got absorbed by China, the Canal Zone got absorbed by Panama, the Indians got absorbed by the United States and North and South American countries, the Kurds got absorbed by Iraq, Iran, Syria and Turkey, etc. The fact is that the planet has 20,000 languages and dialects. There are at least that many ethnic groups. Everyone would naturally want to live in a country where the laws and government was run in their own native language. But the sad fact is that there are only a few hundred countries on the planet. There aren't enough countries to go around, and the reason is that the more powerful countries absorb the less powerful ones. In particular, weak ethnic groups that are geographically surrounded by strong ethnic groups eventually end up absorbed by the strong ethnic group. To make predictions as to which countries will survive and which countries will be absorbed by other countries isn't easy. Most cases are too complicated to figure out. But Israel is so horribly outnumbered by populations that are so well united against them, that it is surprising that they've survived, (as in independent country with their own Jewish laws and government) as long as they have. To predict whether Israel will survive into the future requires analyzing the strength of the forces arrayed against it to the strength of Israel itself. I've already gone over that and it's getting time for me to go to bed so I won't repeat it. But I am not providing a "utopian" solution to anything. All I'm doing is examining the current situation and making a prediction. It's not surprising that you disagree with me. I don't bother predicting things that everybody "knows" is going to happen. I only go to the trouble of making predictions when there is a substantial number of people who believe otherwise. That's why I publicly predicted on SI that Y2K would not arrive with significant problems, that Rambus would crash and burn, that the US would have little problems pushing over the Taliban, that US troops would be cheered in Kabul, and that there would be no war with Iraq. In each of these circumstances, the conventional "wisdom" was against me. I'm very used to be told that I'm wrong by people who are quite intelligent. -- Carl