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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: zonder who wrote (55695)	11/4/2002 9:40:25 AM
From: LindyBill	Respond to of 281500

What 5% are you talking about The 5% that still believe that "Arafat does not mean it." The "78% for peace in a framework," is nothing new. Israel has tried again and again to get a peace agreement with the Pals, and they can't get one. 78% would still like to see it happen. 22% have had it with the Pals. They will get back to the table in a year or two, when Arafat is History, and we have changed the balance of power in the ME. The problem is now that the Pals have hurt their chances of getting what they were offered a few years back. BTW, I saw that figure in your first post, in spite of your bolding it. :^) It was just so well known I saw no reason to comment on it.

To: zonder who wrote (55695)	11/4/2002 3:50:09 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

showed 78% of Israelis in favor of dismantling the vast majority of settlements in the framework of a peace agreement with the Palestinians."??? Zoner, I believe the Israleli population, overall, has been in favor of dismantling Jewish settlements in EXCHANGE for a comprehensive peace. But most Israelis understand that so long as Arafat and militant Palestinians continue to threaten to destroy Israel, and provide sanctuary and support for suicide bombers, there's little incentive to dismantle them. There has to be compromise on both sides. And I think the polls you display that Israelis are more than willing to do so once Palestinians are ready to reciprocate. But first things first.. Israel must have their security guarantees. Hawk

To: zonder who wrote (55695)	11/4/2002 5:45:00 PM
From: Nadine Carroll	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

78% of Israelis in favor of dismantling the vast majority of settlements in the framework of a peace agreement with the Palestinians Apropos of that poll: The Value of "Peace" in the Polls by Elliot Chodoff Never counted among the fans of public opinion polls, we have long been proponents of the tenet, "statistics never lie, but liars use statistics." It has long been the case that politicians and analysts have relied on poll results to prove that a particularly policy had or lacked the sweeping support of the people. Most recently, a poll was released showing 78% of Israelis willing to dismantle settlements for peace. Benyamin Ben Eliezer seems to have taken this statistic into account in deciding to quit the national unity government. Poll taking is fraught with dangers from determining the sample through wording the question and analyzing the results. Wording is critical in survey design, as words evoke emotions and specific words can direct an answer simply by their presence or absence in the question. The insertion or omission of the word "peace" is an excellent example of this problem, particularly in Israel, where the dream of peace was born with the country's independence, and its connotations include recognition and coexistence along with tranquility and security. There is little the average Israeli would not do in return for peace. We decided on a not-very-scientific test of our hypothesis. In the absence of an average citizen, we conscripted our colleague Yisrael as the subject of the experiment. The following exchange is more or less verbatim: Q: "Would you give up the Golan to the Syrians?" A: "Never." Q: "Would you give up the Golan for peace?" A: (squirm) "Define peace." Q: "I'm asking the questions. You define peace and answer." A: (squirm) "Well...." (squirm) "For peace." We're friends so we dropped it at that point. Try this test yourselves. To add some variation, insert a loaded positive adjective before the word "peace" (i.e. genuine, lasting, permanent, secure, guaranteed, Messianic) and see how many of your subjects are willing to just say "no." The problem, of course, is neither peace nor the concessions. It rests on the parenthetical adjectives mentioned above. We contend that basing policy on polls is faulty decision making. It is even worse when the questions are loaded with suggestive phrases, whether intentionally or unwittingly. After all, everyone is in favor of peace. Along with mom and apple pie. chodoff.blogspot.com