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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (52915)	11/6/2002 7:48:04 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 54805

Frank, << With all due respect, the bottom set of numbers is irrelevant to this discussion, Eric, unless it's your contention that Ntel, Mot and Lucent's disasters are largely attributable to their cdma programs. >> With all due respect Frank, when your future is primarily dependent on <15% of the addressable market for only a portion of communications equipment (infra) you don't have a very rosy future, Qualcomm's value chain is decimated. Samsung and LGE are doing OK but they are doing ok because they are branched out into GSM and near term into 3GSM. Its nice to control a value chain that has formed around your discontinuous innovation but ideally that value chain has to have some substance. I submit to you that the bottom set of numbers has GREAT relevance to a discussion about whether or not Qualcomm is a gorilla and what they are a gorilla of. I am not contending that LU, NT, and MOT's disasters are largely attributable to their cdma programs, but I GUARANTEE you that at one time they expected that the R&D that they invested in cdmaOne & cdma2000 would have a bigger pay off than it has yielded to date or are likely to yield in the future and they made strategic decisions accordingly. Now you can ignore those figures if you want but I have a serious stake in Qualcomm and I'm not about to ignore them. Best, - Eric -