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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MulhollandDrive who wrote (11700)	11/6/2002 10:54:10 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57110

what about the 50s? I saw on cnbc that until about 98, the 50s were the best performing decade for stocks (of course the mkts were thrased in the war years previously so coming off a low base)... and there was boucoup productivity, correct?

To: MulhollandDrive who wrote (11700)	11/6/2002 11:42:30 PM
From: X Y Zebra	Respond to of 57110

But at the same time, the trade and current account deficits have not corrected and the fiscal deficit is growing worse and house prices, encouraged by low interest rates, are emulating the bubble that occurred previously in stocks. if the US productivity machine is so finely tuned... I believe this machine could be put to use more efficiently by exporting to other countries. Perhaps not all US companies actually export what they could. If successful in exporting more, would it be beneficial to reduce the final price, since they have reduced operating costs... What about the fear to have a weak dollar ? this seems counter with a policy of expanding exports... (i.e. lower dollar, lower prices for US goods) As for the real estate bubble.... are people buying just because, or are people buying because there is a true demand for ot and supply cannot meet demand? Commercial Real Estate (industrial, office, strip retail, Mall retail) does not seem to be on a bubble... Residential, ( mainly homes, --not apartments) seems to be in one [bubble] ... but the question remains is it driven by real demand... Is it a fact that most people are refinancing just to continue to spend, OR are they refinancing existing debt at a better cost? Are homes rising in ALL cities ? (just ask Seattleites). Alternatively, how are the smaller towns doing ? Why is home supply not meeting demand (could it be that the permit process is a pain in the arse ?? eh, eh, ?) The question is what is the treatment for all this? If we say that the world's biggest economy overdid it in those exuberant days of the 1990s, what is Dr. Alan to do about it now? Indeed.. so what is it ? of all the critics... who has come forward and expressly placed an alternative solution... ? I am not defending anyone.. I am just simply saying what is the solution then.... Besides, I am no economist nor a guru... all I can say... the economy is a living animal that moves, breaths day in and day out and it is influenced by the behaviour of millions of its participants. Likewise, the market influences back the members of such economy as much as the participants influence the market by those very same actions. (Ah remember Soros and his theory of reflexivity ?). How can we influence the sound management of personal finances of millions (including private and corporate citizens ?) With all of our technical knowledge and sophisticated formulas etc etc.... we still cannot predict common people... if we could... we would not be grasping for the explanation of the last three weeks in this market (plus or minus) just my opinion.