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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Clarksterh who wrote (52932)	11/7/2002 10:28:49 AM
From: carranza2	Respond to of 54805

all suggests that some strange data is being used. No kidding. I don't follow the figures as assidously as others. If did, I'd sell my Q shares and wonder how its increased ASIC sales, optimistic forecasts, etc., make any sense unless it is massively cooking the books.

To: Clarksterh who wrote (52932)	11/7/2002 10:40:33 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Respond to of 54805

Very classy of you, Clark. --Mike Buckley

To: Clarksterh who wrote (52932)	11/7/2002 11:34:41 AM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Clark, << Apologies to Eric >> None necessary, always enjoy your posts, and I hope you are aware that I consider you to be one of the finest and most astute long time contributors to the wireless boards here on SI (and don't tell Mq I said that <g>). << Nokia, the best of the GSM players, has had approximately flat unit sales for the last several years >> Darned. Pardon me again, Clark. <g> Do you mean the last several quarters? Would you PLEASE carefully take a look at Nokia's market share growth "for the last several years" that plots their migration from Prince to King in the largest consumer electronics market in the world: Message 17405845 Thank you very much for taking the time to correct your own misconception and glad I could assist. <ggg> Here are some numbers through Q2 02. Message 17902500 That's SA. Gartner had the numbers somewhat different for Q2: Nokia continued to dominate worldwide mobile phone sales during the second quarter of 2002 (see Table below), thanks to the continued competitiveness of its entry-level GSM portfolio. [Gartner also reported that 98.7 million handsets had been sold during the quarter - a rosier estimate than Strategy's 96.7 million. Strategy Analytics has Nokia at 37.2% v. Motorola's 17.3% (2.2x)] 2Q02 Sales Market Units Share Nokia 35,089,000 35.6% Motorola 15,496,000 15.7% Samsung 9,342,000 9.5% Siemens 8,247,000 8.4% SonyEricsson 5,309,000 5.4% Others 25,220,000 25.6% Total 98,703,100 - << and at the same time CDG shows large growth in CDMA subscribers >> CDG shows flat unit subscriber growth of about 30 million a year for the last 3 years (including this one). This is an abstract for the last few years: Message 17392258 Latest sub stats from EMC (CDG hasn't posted Q3 yet): Total Subscribers End Q3 2002 QCDMA GSM Digital All 134.4m 747.5m 1080m 1049m Source: EMC Cellular Some recent GSM stats related to technology adoption here: Message 18133522 Best, - Eric -

To: Clarksterh who wrote (52932)	11/7/2002 12:57:00 PM
From: hueyone	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

it is never possible to be the fastest growing (percentagewise) part of a market and still be losing market share. Ok, we are in agreement on the above part now. BUT!!! It is possible to be the fastest growing part and have a slower growing part be growing their market share faster. All it requires is a stagnant or better yet, shrinking third part of the market. But I still respectfully disagree on your second point. As long as "X" is growing at a fast rate than "Y", its relative percentage gain, or percentage loss as the case may be, will never look worse in comparison to the slower growing "Y"s relative percentage gain or loss, irregardless of what the growth rate of the third component, "Z", does. Please try your scratch pad example again. I believe your results will confirm my conclusions. Of course by relative percentage gains and losses, I am referring to the 22.3% gain in GSM market share of the overall wireless market and the 4.2% gain in CDMA market share of the overall wireless market (that Eric referred to) as opposed to the absolute percentage point gains or losses for both GSM and CDMA that Eric referred to in his post as 12.6% and 1/2% respectively. Best, Huey