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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ajtj99 who wrote (14416)	11/9/2002 11:17:38 AM
From: TREND1	Respond to of 30712

The "Down Staircase To Hell" (1)The chart shows 9 indexes with 3LB charts. (2)8 out of 9 show "Red Reversal Bars" which is now bearish. (3)Long term the "Down Staircase to Hell" which started in Mar 2000 is still with us. (4)The question this weekend is: Will Top dated Aug 22, 2002 be passing to Top dated Nov 6, 2002 ? Another lower step ? (5)Look at the stocks you own. Are they above the High of Nov 6, 2002? groups.yahoo.com Larry Dudash

To: ajtj99 who wrote (14416)	11/9/2002 11:30:03 PM
From: LTK007	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 30712

Some fine deep researchers are terribly wrong, or do you have access to some very privy information they don't have? That's a pretty dogmatic counter view the lessens the crisis by a major magnitude. Is your view a opinion or a view gathered from deep research ??? And do you still state "there will be NO war with Iraq". ? Because if you truly know this to be so i would like your reasons as why this is so re-stated. As i see it we have various scenarios and i will give a % weighting as for chances of their becoming reality. 1) The inspectors get free ,in no way restricted; that is, ability to snoop about and then announce to world "the Saddam Hussein we have found to be falsely charged, they in fact are hiding nothing". percentage rating less than 1percent(less than 1/2 of one percent). 2) Saddam himself suddenly goes Mea Culpa, personally has the inspectors led to site after site of storage places or manufacturing sites for weapons or materials for mass destruction. Begs forgiveness and resigns his leadership and states , "i now realize Stalin was a extremely evil man and i was a fool to make him my role model".percentage rating--0%. 3) Scenario numero tres. They are hiding something and will dodge delay stall quibble and Bush will say that's fine with me, let's give them more time. percentage rating--0%. Well you can see where i am leading. i actually see one scenario that does not lead to war. And that is Saddam loyalist turn against him with vigor and there is a coup d' etat, and they then set a coordinated deep plan to disarm Iraq of "weapons of mass destruction" percentage rating 30%. So basically on a cold blooded scale, i give this a 70% likelihood there will be war, and key then is how fast or slow it takes to be finished. Will there be a rising peace movement to protest war with Iraq(especially in europe,but here also, in part). Yes. But it will be a bad cartoon, like a cruel satire of the Vietnam Peace Movement; and i think many that participated in someway in the Vietnam Peace Movement would cringe at a "No war with Iraq" movement. Do i feel from a strategic point of view that Bush taking on Iraq now would be a major mistake with potentially bad consequences?? YES!!! But i could NEVER EVER participate in peace protest that is protective to Saddam Hussein. Never.Period. We have great irony's at work, when Bush.Sr., had the chance he made a horrendously bad decision in not allowing a blitzkrieg into Baghdad continue. Once the enemy starts running you don't stop. We would have taken control in days, vast amounts of Iraqi soldiers would have happily surrendered( like they really loved the fool that had sent them on fools mission,yeh sure) Saddam would either then have been dead,captured(to be tried as a war criminal) or permitted to fly to Sudan or Yemen, to fade away. But all is now different, far more tangled and risky; but GW wants this and he wants it bad. It is for the Bush family, like the ultimate "unfinished business " for them. So why can i be so assured "war will NOT happen"??? Max