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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Win-Lose-Draw who wrote (14618)	11/11/2002 3:13:28 PM
From: Softechie	Respond to of 30712

Nasdaq broke 20-day MA...Technical Levels : A look at the Nasdaq's weekly chart going back 18 months places the recent four-week rally -- which started on October 10th -- in perspective. Prior to last week, the markets had strung together four consecutive higher closes in the wake of a massive 31-month bear market. At this point, the Dow is about 1,356 points off its worst levels in a matter of a month. At the same time, the Nasdaq has climbed 251 points off its lows in the same time frame. So those are gains of about 18.8% and 22.6% respectively -- again in about a month. At this point, a common question is whether the indices are bloated at current levels. The major averages just managed what would be a solid year's return in about a month. With that kind of gain under its belt, how are the markets situated at current levels? Well looking out more broadly, the recent surge does register on the chart, though the magnitude of recent gains loses its edge when placed in context. Again, this is a weekly chart -- showing the opening and closing levels for each week going back to April of 2001. As an interesting aside, you can also see that the Nasdaq finished last week essentially on our first support point of 1,360. For those who prefer the details, the Nasdaq's exact close for the week came in at 1,359.28 -- we identified the 1,360 level as first support in our Friday review. At any rate, for those operating on a shorter-term basis, the technical story remains reasonably simple. Continue to look for the 1,360 level to serve as a very near-term pivot point. This represents the bottom of the gap created on November 4th -- that sizeable Monday rally which started off last week. The 1,360 level is followed by support at 1,347 which matches up with notable chart congestion and also approximates a Fibonacci retracement. Now assuming support in the general area of 1,347 to 1,350 would fail to hold, then a broader view of the potential support points will be in order. As we suggested last Friday, next support looks like the Nasdaq's 20-day exponential moving average which currently rests at 1,326. After that, you have the index' 100-day simple moving average at 1,309 and congestion around the 1,300 level which also happens to approximate a 62% retracement of the prior leg higher. It's also notable that on the weekly chart, 1,303 happens to represent the index' 20-week exponential moving average. So as it stands now, the broad range of 1,300 to 1,326 continues to look like a relatively solid floor for the time being. To the upside, look for initial resistance at our former support point in the range of 1,380 to 1,382. That area is followed by more significant overhead in the range of broader congestion at 1,394 to 1,401. Again, if the Nasdaq should successfully navigate those two levels, look for the real test of the next leg higher at substantial resistance in the range of 1,419 to 1,423. This area has been reasonably well documented on our part as it brackets the September 11th-induced reaction lows that bottomed at 1,423, as well as the reaction lows of October 1998 which bottomed at 1,419. -- Mike Ashbaugh, Briefing.com

To: Win-Lose-Draw who wrote (14618)	11/11/2002 4:30:31 PM
From: LTK007	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 30712

WLD, i conjecture that U.S. would take him out in blink of an eye if they thought they had the "window" that leads to blowing Saddam apart. There is no longer any "Head of State" protection on Saddam. He is fair game. If they could get his location at a certain window for a certain specific time they, i suspect, would gladly send a cruise missile through that window. He is not an easy target i gather. Best chance is to have the killing done from those that now protect him,imo. i see i am in a contrarian position now, as most all i am hearing is "no question, no doubt Saddam will without question accept the U.N.resolution." I still can not see him doing that--as i say i am ready to turn in my badge if i am wrong on this one:) max