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To: maceng2 who wrote (25365)	11/12/2002 2:59:54 PM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Sure - the total return is split among the various players - like brokers, bankers etc. Any individual investment also can be a complete dud or lose money for years or terminally. My point was simply that investment as a general class should make a positive return over time. Otherwise all capital investments would be worth nothing or negative. My original point was a remark on Jay's comment that if you earn more than the 2-3% return due to economic then you must be taking it away from someone else. i.e. it is a zero sum game apart from that growth component. You should in the long-run expect investment incomes to not grow by much more than 2-3% per annum in real (after inflation) terms if all net earnings are paid out rather than being reinvested or used for buybacks etc. In the economy as a whole that is likely how fast the real capital stock will be growing - (well it may grow slightly faster as more capital is used per worker over time). But unless the share of capital in the national income is growing over time (which it isn't) that is how fast capital income in the economy will be growing. But to compute the expected total return in each year you need to include the current expected earnings unless they are zero. There isn't anything unusual in my ideas about investment just standard ideas in economics that any economist regardless of school of thought should agree with. David