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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: zonder who wrote (57931)	11/20/2002 12:22:34 PM
From: Nadine Carroll	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

Turks clearly do not support the US in its intended invasion of Iraq but could go the way of surfing the wave for profits. What will probably happen is that if the US wants to use Turkish bases, they will push the EU hard for Turkey's membership talks AND pay good money for "compensations". So Turkey is trying to cut the best deal for itself? Oh my, what a shock. As for the anti-war pronouncements, once again I spy some airspace between public pronouncements and private opinions. I can well understand that the prospect of a US invasion of Iraq worries Turkey very deeply. But on the other hand, the Turks are not fools, and the prospect of containment breaking down altogether, leaving them with a nuclear-armed Iraq on their southern border, must not fill them with joy either. They may comfort themselves that the Kurds will take the brunt of the punishment, and that Saddam wouldn't dare to invade them directly, but who can feel comfortable about the calculations Saddam might make once he had nukes? Iran was four times the size of Iraq, and he invaded them anyway.

To: zonder who wrote (57931)	11/20/2002 3:33:33 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Hi zonder; Re: "I agree with you Nadine that there will probably not be a change in the Turkish position vis-a-vis the US or Iraq." The new Turkish regime has already announced that Sharon is a terrorist, and has declined to even committing to allow US planes to use Turkish bases in a UN mandated war with Iraq: #reply-18205935 While the new regime may be more central than the Islamic party they were (openly) recently, there is no question that Bush's (alleged) ambitions took a hit with the election. As far as the EU having an influence on Turkey to join a US attack, I can only laugh. Europe is mostly against the US attacking Iraq, why the hell would they influence Turkey to fight for us? The other way around, maybe. -- Carl