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To: Jon Koplik who wrote (125597)	11/20/2002 8:13:39 PM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

July 2002 were not the lows oct was

To: Jon Koplik who wrote (125597)	11/20/2002 8:27:19 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 152472

If Laszlo Birinyi turns out to be correct (buying U.S. stocks around July 2002 is buying at or near the lows for a long time is that your definition of a bull market? "lows for a long time"? that is not very precise. a bull market means the market will go up and take out its old high and leave the lows in the dust. take the DOW. it spent 16 years from 1966 to 1982 stuck around 1000. then it left 1000 in the dust and went up over 11,000, over a span of two decades. now THAT is a bull market. calling a trading opportunity in a bear market--that is, a bear market rally--is a totally different beast. btw, i myself called the July lows on this thread and put my money where my mouth was. i was cognizant that this was just a trading opp. the current rally looks very trashy to me. lots of trash stocks going up huge amounts. a mixture of panicking shorts and idiot longs doing the "Soros Trade" (deliberately buying the most speculative, trashy stocks in a bet on a 1999-2000-like rally). i believe this will only end badly. the whole purpose of bear market rallies is just to suck more people into the market so Darfot can separate them from their wealth. real bull markets don't start like the rallies in July and October; only oversold bear market rallies start that way! btw, i can speak with a bit of cred on this because i myself called the July bottom as well as the August top. check it out... To:marginmike who wrote (122005) From: Mucho Maas Tuesday, Jul 23, 2002 6:42 PM Respond to of 125599 mucho loves the negativity. buy when the bubbleonians start puking in the streets...i am very pleased by the negativity on my favorite contrary indicator, the G&K thread and its derivatives... Message 17783764 To:Art Bechhoefer who wrote (121889) From: Mucho Maas Sunday, Jul 21, 2002 5:25 PM View Replies (3) \| Respond to of 125599 in spite of all the negativity (to which i am of course an enthusiastic contributor :), i am going to start increasing my equity allocation this week. you gotta love this negativity you will notice that my sole justification for going long at that time was "negativity". that is, an extreme oversold condition. i did not consider that condition to mean anything other than a precursor to a violent bear market rally, and acted accordingly. not only that, but i called the top of that trading rally in late August. To:Mucho Maas who wrote (121890) From: Mucho Maas Thursday, Aug 22, 2002 1:05 PM View Replies (1) \| Respond to of 125599 i became quite bullish on the market during the week of July 22-26. all my favorite contrarian indicators were flashing buy signals. so i closed all my shorts and increased my equity allocation a goodly amount. due to the extremely positive market action since then, i think it is time for me to reel in some longs and start shorting again. Message 17907873; btw, i mainly consider the above calls to have been luck, and did not try a repeat off the October lows (although i had zero or limited shorts at that time. as for your final question... Will you remember these SI posts (jabs ?) that we have just exchanged ? sure. if the SPX takes out 1550 within 3 years, i will say i was wrong right here! on the other hand, if within 3 years the SPX takes out its October low, will you remember?