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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gdichaz who wrote (53110)	11/20/2002 8:55:23 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Cha2, a certain all time superstar who is at least part American How is an American citizen "part" American? About the rest of your post, thanks. I'll wait to see Eric's thoughts before asking more. --Mike Buckley

To: gdichaz who wrote (53110)	11/20/2002 10:56:26 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

re: GSM Ubiquity Cha2, << The advantages of 450 are two in main. The distances covered are greater per base station, so in places like Russia, China, Indonesia et al it is relatively cheap compared to higher frequencies. >> Yes. 450 MHz has great RF propagation characteristics. The downside is that the bandwidth assigned is very narrow so proportionally fewer subscribers can be accommodated than the mainstream cellular frequencies. There is no free lunch. << CDMA is the only practical game for it >> CDMA is well suited for it. << The GSMers gave up. >> They essentially did. The very low subscriber base of NMT-450 had a lot to do with that. They may regret it at a future time but for the moment they are focused on the WRC-2000, IMT-2000, 3G spectrum bands and GSM 850 and EDGE development took precedence over GSM 450 because the opportunity was so much larger. << The Russian example is not the best of course to explain why 450 may well have a market where there are large distances - low cost over space. >> I'm not so sure of that. There are nice opportunities for mobile wireless in Russia. GSM in Russia is in hypergrowth. In the first 9 months of this year the Russian GSM subscriber base grew from 5.7 million subs to 12.1 million (6.4 million net adds) a CAGR of 173%. Beeline and MTS have had GPRS networks live for some time and Sonic Duo (MegaFon) will come on line shortly. MMS will be live in both Moscow and St. Petersburg Q1 2003 courtesy of Nokia. CJSC Novgorod, CJSC Volgograd, and DAL will all launch GSM GPRS networks in Russia next year. The number of CDMA subscribers in Russia grew by 22% in the first nine months of 2002 to 280,000 (19 operators currently provide such services, in 23 regions of the country). << Eric L has given you an answer which a European would give. (Sometimes it is hard to remember he is an American >> LOL! I think (have thought for some time) that it is something of a mistake for anyone to think of GSM as a European thing. Better to think of it as the Global System for Mobile Communications. As of October when AWS lit NYC the US now has two nationwide GSM GPRS networks and there will be three by the end of next year next (upgraded to EDGE). Canada has two already and Mexico's largest network is starting its conversion from TDMA. By the end of this year all but 3 Latin American countries (Columbia, Ecuador, and Uruguay) will have an operational GSM network live, and the Caribbean is being covered like a blanket. By the end of next year all but 8 countries in the world will have a GSM/3GSM network live (the exceptions are Colombia, Djibouti, Ecuador, Eritrea, Haiti, Iraq, and Uruguay). Pyramid Research specializes in tracking and forecasting Latin American subsscribers. This is there latest forecast for 2007 for Latin America: Actual Forecast End 2001 End 2007 GSM 4% 36% CDMA 22% 31% TDMA 48% 28% iDEN 2% 3% AMPS 24% 2% Around the world at the end of September there were 460 GSM/3GSM Networks on Air in 165 countries and their are 107 more planning to go on air bringing the country total to 180. Currently 150+ of these networks have enabled GPRS IP packet data services and another 60 or so are readying. That's all called "technology adoption" - in this case truly "worldwide "technology adoption and technology adoption is at the root of "The Gorilla Game." It's also called "ubiquity". Cisco, IBM, Intel, HP, LGE, NEC, Matsushita, Microsoft, Motorola, Nortel, Openwave, Samsung, and TI don't think of GSM as a "European" thing. Not to despair. By the end of this decade more than 50% of global subscribers should be using some flavor of cdma. I think its important to realize that this migration will not happen overnight. Best, - Eric -