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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ajtj99 who wrote (16439)	11/21/2002 9:14:16 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 30712

Another pattern similar to today's NDX candles was the candles from Oct. 10-11 2001. We advanced about 3% after the 2nd white candle that pierced the upper BB, then dropped to fill the gap. stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[d20010821,20011121][pb20!b50!b200!c13!c20!c50!i!d20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lg!Li10,10!Lh5,5!Lp14,3,3!Ll14][J6471081,Y]&pref=G That was only 10-days after the re-test of the Sept. 2001 lows, so it may not be as applicable here. Here's a chart from the April-May 2001 rally. There are two long candles in April with a gap in between. The April top was 3% higher than the 2nd long candle: stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[d20010321,20010721][pb20!b50!b200!c13!c20!c50!i!d20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lg!Li10,10!Lh5,5!Lp14,3,3!Ll14][J6471081,Y]&pref=G The May 2001 top was also after a couple of similar candles, but they were interrupted by 2-smaller white candles. The top was just a couple points higher than the 2nd white candle that closed above the upper BB. Using a close of a long white candle above the upper BB in the April-May time frame, you'd have only a 1% (30-points) maximum rally after that close, and the closes were lower than the white candles' close. Going into the July 2000 4089 top we had a long white candle close above the upper BB, and the high was the next day. stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[d20000121,20000721][pb20!b50!b200!c13!c20!c50!i!d20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lg!Li10,10!Lh5,5!Lp14,3,3!Ll14][J6471081,Y]&pref=G Normally in the bull market when we had a situation like this, we flagged out for a bit, made a new slightly higher high, then hunted for the middle BB and reversed. In the bear, we drop to new lows. I can only find one example in 1999 of a 2-long white candle pattern that closed above the upper BB and moved higher from there, and that was in November 1999: stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[d19990321,19991131][pb20!b50!b200!c13!c20!c50!i!d20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lg!Li10,10!Lh5,5!Lp14,3,3!Ll14][J6471081,Y]&pref=G Conclusion, either this is a new mania (doubtful) or we're within 3% of the termination of the rally (likely).