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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Mullens who wrote (53157)	11/22/2002 11:49:49 AM
From: Thomas Mercer-Hursh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Substitution is the most insidious kind of competition, 'cause most of the time you don't even see it coming To be sure, those within often don't see substitutes coming until they have built up some critical mass ... although they also aren't a real threat until then either. Still, well before then one can at the least identify whether a potential substitute technology has a potentially compelling edge. What is the edge for these WiFi technologies?

To: Jim Mullens who wrote (53157)	11/25/2002 11:09:02 AM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

re: Do you have any factual basis or substantial evidence for making such a statement or is it just a "speculating thing" (which is ok also)? Unfortunately I lack a time machine, so any of my views into the future are speculation from the get-go <g/ng>. Am I speaking of Flarion as a disruptive force? No. I am speaking of market forces, economic advantage, technological capability. You brought up the possibility of focal points. Flarion is one of these. My observation here is based on a simple extrapolation. Here's the pitch: buy QCOM (the stock) 'cause Qualcomm (the company) has a lock on something that everybody wants, namely the solution to delivery of broadband wireless data anywhere they want it. Any mechanism that can deliver broadband wireless data to a subset of anywhere to a subset of folks who might want it represents a potential substitution threat. WiFi fits this bill rather neatly. And it has standardized on OFDM. The argument against its widespread appeal is "lack of ubiquity and support from industry". Pretty weak considering this was exactly the argument against CDMA not too long ago, vis-a-vis AMPS, for example. And we know how wrong they turned out to be. John.