Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (7034)	11/22/2002 12:43:03 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95541

RE: "...at some point in time there will be a flood gate opening and everyone will order all at once..." This is an example of looking ahead by peering into the rear view mirror. No doubt, "at some point in time" Morgan will be correct, but I believe it will be circa 2006-2008 when we have completely corrected the bubble excesses. Until then, there will be a lumpy move up as new technology gains market acceptance and drives increased production one product at a time.

To: The Ox who wrote (7034)	11/22/2002 1:09:50 PM
From: Alastair McIntosh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95541

Hi Michael, my remarks while somewhat tongue in cheek reflect my views. Despite what I consider high valuations for the sector I am by no means bearish. I think investor sentiment and seasonality will dampen any pullback and share prices will generally trend higher into January. Just because stocks are over-valued does not mean that they won't become more over-valued. It is my guess that we are setting up for a great shorting opportunity in January. Two more low BtB reports and lowered 2003 capital spending budgets should do the trick. Leading edge technology buys may keep the industry going at a low level but until overall capacity issues are resolved growth will remain anemic. It will take more than modest increases it IT spending to trigger capacity buys. Until the larger economy works out issues of overcapacity, high debt and low overall demand companies will not be eager to spend on IT. The market is always looking ahead 9 to 12 months but that doesn't mean the market is right. The market "looked ahead" in the spring of 2001, the fall of 2001, in March of this year and in August of this year. Why is the market "right" now in predicting recovery when it has been wrong so often? As far as any statements from CEO's, I think that it is best to ignore them. They are more self-serving than anything said by analysts.