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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (16801)	11/23/2002 2:39:59 PM
From: Win-Lose-Draw	Respond to of 30712

that sounds too complicated a reason. i prefer simpler explanations, especially ones that relate to the essentially lemming-like nature of speculators. in this case: Buffet bough level3 bonds, therefore all telecom debt is undervalued.

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (16801)	11/23/2002 4:19:07 PM
From: nsumir81	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

The 'fundamental' reasons are liquidity, and 'momentum investing'-g Fueled by a belief in the Presidential Cycle theory. (4-year cycle low etc..no fundamentals..just statistical studies) Which in turn provide short covering. PERIOD.

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (16801)	11/23/2002 4:20:43 PM
From: nsumir81	Respond to of 30712

Telecom spending?..with gobs of dark fiber? No imo. eom

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (16801)	11/24/2002 3:34:13 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

I seriously doubt the fundamental reasoning for a rally. Have you looked at the balance sheets of the phone carriers lately? T is basically insolvent, SBC is overextended, and Q is nearly chapter 11. Capital spending plunges when the balance sheets are a wreck. The airlines are a good example. When you're Chapter 11, it's difficult to get capital spending approved also. I could get a better idea when I talk with my brother next weekend, as he deals with several telecoms through IBM. I know WCOM is cut to the bare bones, and I can't get a service person to come out if I beg them to, as they've cut them down to nothing. Many carriers like Bell South who used to buy hardware switches are now using soft-switches, which are tons cheaper and easy to maintain and re-program.

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (16801)	11/27/2002 7:29:38 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 30712

More for the tomato throwers: "Durable goods orders rose a higher-than-expected 2.8 percent in October, the Commerce Department said, boosted in part by strong demand for machinery and a 65.2 percent surge for communications equipment." So everyone still thinks its bs that the telco's have loaded up everyone with the line of bs so thick and long that they don't need to add capacity? And their junk bonds are going goofy on sheer speculation from bond investors?Yeah, I think that must be it, junk bond guys are more than willing to throw dough at these guys on speculaton..they actually think they are all going out of business, they just want to make a quick buck. hmmmm. I think the bears only hope is us going into Iraq. I am about 80% short again, as of the close, because we are too far above max pain, and because of Iraq. But I think a new bull started In late July/early Aug. I am old enough to remember massive recoveries without much cap ex pickup initially. And what you all look back and see as low pe's, well when we saw a pe of 13 on something with no growth, no possibility of much growth in its field, 2% margins, and interest rates of 20%, that didn't look as good as getting a cd at the bank. Now the cd pays less than the dividends on the majority of the dow. I think a lot of guys who made money consistently for 30 years are looking at the new breed bears who have done well for two, and they are thinking the new bears sure don't know what is hitting them.