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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jeffrey S. Lillie who wrote (14183)	11/24/2002 12:10:16 PM
From: PuddleGlum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57110

Jeff- It looks like you and I are seeing some similar things. Here I present something of a bullish case, but follow that with some arguments that prompt me to take some money off the table very soon: RTH is in a triangle: stockcharts.com[PA]... NDX just gave a bullish catapult, though one could imagine some "rolling over" at this point: stockcharts.com[PA... The VIX just broke down through 30, which was supposed to provide some support, so the VIX is broken and may stay below 30 for quite some time. Lots of multi-year charts are showing substantial bottoms ( NOT the Victoria's Secret kind!), and short interest is still very high with many folks saying that the market MUST resume its descent. I see cup-and-handle thingies on a number of index/holder charts, and inverse head-and-shoulder-like formations showing up. TTH has a solid double bottom in place and has now clearly exceeded the top between the two bottoms. Bearish resistance lines have been shattered all over the place. Given all of that, my own computations show similarity between now and 11/6/98, 5/21/01, and 12/7/01. The $OTC was at approximately 3-month highs in each case, though it is now at about a 5-month high. In the first case $OTC immediately shot higher and one month later broke to a new all time high. In the second two cases these types of numbers marked the highs (or very nearly so, depending on which charts you look at) of rolling tops. I plan to raise some cash after the first weak day that we have. If the market then decides to move up you will find me back in the market in a big way. If we go down or sideways for 2-3 weeks then you will find me shorting the next bounce. My system will trigger a sell signal at any time now. Will it trigger on Monday? Friday? I don't know, but I could reasonably start taking money off the table at any time. (Yeah, Jorj, I know I told you that the market had to start teetering or wobbling first, but I'm willing to forego a 20% upside to avoid a greater risk of a 35% downside).