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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (7069)	11/24/2002 12:58:39 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Respond to of 95587

>> I don't think everyone picked up on that information at all. That is why I posted it. Oh, I'm glad you posted it. I only meant that the move up recently was strong enough for anyone to notice it. Though to me, it seems more like a move out of no-where, rather than from improved fundamentals. >> despite this recent rally we may not yet have seen capitulation in this bear market: Well, it all depends on the January reports. I don't know if you saw it, but Alastair had an excellent post regarding positive expectations fueling this rally. But that if they are not met, then the reaction will be brutal. I agree the possibility is there. And honestly I don't quite know what to do with my own portfolio right now. It is actually positive for the year (due to over-weight in WDC). And I really won't like to lose half of it again. In the past few months I have been using fundamental economic data to decide to stay fully invested. And I believe these data will remain the driver of the market in the next 2 months. I'm listening to the interview now. He makes a good cautious case. But I am not convinced we need capitulation to define a bottom. Sarmad

To: Return to Sender who wrote (7069)	11/24/2002 1:10:24 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95587

RE: "Do me a favor and listen to this interview..." Two quotes that stand out: "Don't be fully invested here" and "Come back in 6 months when risk will be much lower." I was not impressed. We all know that this rally is not based on strong forward visibility and strong fundamentals. We know about seasonality and other historical and cyclical factors. I don't believe the analysis of psychology in recent bull and bear markets was accurate or convincing. I don't know anyone, except, maybe, Bob Furman, who is certain that the bottom was reached in October.

To: Return to Sender who wrote (7069)	11/24/2002 10:53:29 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95587

How does that "capacity addition" square with the following: investorshub.com Pariculalry the passage: "TSMC said on Friday it expected capacity utilisation to reach nearly 60 percent in the period from October to December, hiking a forecast of utilisation in the "mid-50 percent" range given in late October. If that is true, than capacity additions are not imminent. It is quite possible that their high end fabs are operating near the 90% capacity, and if most of the new demand is for "high end fab capacity, then they may have no choice, but to upgrade old technology to newer one. I remember sometime ago reading that TSMC high end fabs are closer to full capacity than their older fabs, that may explain the apparent 60% overall capacity utilization and the need to add "capacity". Zeev