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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: zonder who wrote (7211)	11/27/2002 8:51:06 AM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95531

>> Visitor"? You make me sound like an extraterrestrial Sorry, again. You are welcome, any time. Please make yourself at home. >> maybe you guys are a little paranoid. Ah, maybe, but I doubt it. I would be genuinely interested to read your take on why tech stocks were so uniformly down all day yesterday, until the Novellus CC. And the reference that I posted re a fake story about an internal Novellus memo projecting reduced rev next year. >> By the way, NVLS's announcement after close yesterday did not fill me with optimism for the short term: As I said yesterday, I don't know anything about Novellus other than what is easily gotten from browsing the internet. And as RtS pointed out so kindly, there is not any added value in that. My point though, is different. And since I never get a response to it from shorters, I'll repeat it for the nth time. With bold and italics. If you think you are a good judge of valuation and stock price, why couldn't you foresee Novellus price rise from 20 to 36 ? And if you couldn't foresee that increase, why do you think you can foresee a decline from 36? The best statement of the bear case about prices now was summarized in this post by Alastair a while back. --------------- Message 18264341 snippet: "It is my guess that we are setting up for a great shorting opportunity in January. Two more low BtB reports and lowered 2003 capital spending budgets should do the trick." ------------- Have a great day, and I sincerely apologize if I have been rude to you. Sarmad

To: zonder who wrote (7211)	11/27/2002 11:12:46 AM
From: SpecialK	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95531

Zonder, Your email says>>>>>>> In October, Novellus said it expected orders to come in flat to down 10% for the December quarter. Some of its peers in the equipment sector are bracing for worse, with Lam Research predicting orders will slide around 15%, and Applied Materials guiding for bookings to drop 20%. "Business levels are flat, with improving profitability due to cost containment," CEO Richard Hill said on its conference call. "Whether you look at the U.S., Asia, Europe or Japan, the overall economic conditions are tentative, and as a result, there are very conservative investment scenarios being played out by our customers." -------------------------------------------------- I take this last sentence to mean "no increase in demand to be seen". <<<<<<< From Briefing's update on yesterday's call>>>>> Novellus thinks bottom probably in place - Update -- In response to analyst question about Q1 (Mar) visibility, CEO said he isn't going to comment on Q1 right now, but he does believe "we are probably at a bottom"... notes that, at these levels, the safe bet is that things stay flat.. - Update -- On mid-qtr update, still expects total revenues to be $211 mln; notes shipments should be $185 mln or slightly higher... -- On mid-qtr update, says net bookings for Q4 (Dec) are now expected to be $200 mln to possibly $210 mln... this is improved from Q3 conference call when it said Q4 bookings would be $200 mln or could be 10% lower<<<< The Street.com post doesn't clarify that the 10% lower was stated on the Q3 CC, and now at the mid-Q update, the statement is flat to higher. Also, the CEO is saying "its a safe bet that things stay flat" and "we're probably at a bottom". You can read this two ways (half full or half empty) or as no increase in demand (as you state) and no decrease in demand (which the CC suggests). Technically, I believe it's overextended and will likely pullback. As I stated yesterday, rangebound between 30-36, well it's already proven me wrong, as it's at 37. Maybe Mr. Market sees a recovery for Semis and never allowed its valuations to drop dirt cheap, like it has for Telecom for example. I wish you luck with your investment. Ketan