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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Clarksterh who wrote (125739)	12/1/2002 8:15:03 PM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

I dunno Clark, I used the term "I seem to recall" on purpose. You wrote: "In fact in at least one of the conference calls around the time of the Ericsson deal they actually talked about the deals lasting past the expiration of some of their key patents. " Do you think they mentioned that the deals lasted past ALL of their patents, or just some? Also, seems to me they are ammortizing the up-front fees over a period of 5-7 years. And if these things are so perpetual and all encompassing, then why are deals struck some years ago being "extended"? I suggest you'll start to see an increase frequency of that word in Qualcomm press releases. But you are right. These deals are wrapped in terms of nondisclosure. So unless we breach confidence, we can't be definitive here. But that's not so important. The precise nature of how things will transpire is irrelevant. The point remains. In 15 years, none of Qualcomm's current patents will be enforceable. In 5-10 years most of their matchless patents will have expired, and technology will have moved on. We would be very optimistic to extrapolate their business in this timeframe being mostly based on patent portfolio licensing. But that's precisely what people are doing paying such a high multiple for a company that's 62% patent licensing machine, 36% ASIC fab and 2% grab-bag. John