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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: augieboo who wrote (17654)	11/29/2002 5:35:52 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

augie, he has only begun to fight. The adj monetary growth rate is anemic. He can crank it to 10% and hold it there for a couple years like he did around 1992. That should be fun.

To: augieboo who wrote (17654)	11/29/2002 5:46:49 PM
From: Jeffrey S. Lillie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 30712

Hey Augiboo, You may well be right about greenie and all the other observances in this run. he sure has been active on this moonshot from october. my targets for this maddness have not as of yet been violated. these targets are the same i have had for at least three weeks to the best of my knowledge. dow 8900-9050. spx 945-965 nas 1480-1520 ndx 1150-1170 RYVNX 55-58. i entered RYVNX at 57.72 as of wed close as was close enough for me. IMHO the NDX will VIOLATE its ascending triangle breakout of last thursday by no later than the end of next week. VIOLATION is a print less than 1070. Same for nas at 1425. Reminds me of line from a Doors song. "This is the end". do you realize that in last 6 weeks the spx has only risen from 900 to 940. whoopie a puny 4.5%. Thats almost .75% a week. Granted nas has been a lot more vigorous and heaven forbid you were short the sox as that has been unfreakenstoppable. Yes techs are rocking, but the NDX as i have stated a few times in recent days is looking mighty tired and almost closed negative on the week. it was up a whopping .2 pts on the week. i know that RYVNX is hurting you now. It has been going against you for weeks and that only amplifies the angst you feel. Trust me, i have been there and all too recently. Every day it stays up there or hits a new high hutrts. But, my furry friend, the ole dog is coming back to visit your town soon. best of luck to you. This market may just kill bulls and bears alike before its done. I for one would like to still be standing as it will present a wonderful long term buy and hold opportunity. Question in my mind is will that be in 6 months of a couple years or even 5-10 years out. My best approxamation is around 1-2 years from now. jeff

To: augieboo who wrote (17654)	11/29/2002 6:21:29 PM
From: exp	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 30712

AUGIE, JEFF L.: I agree with Augie for the most part. This is what I expect: (1) Some more upside into early December perhaps to COMP 1500-1550 (upper BB should be pierced) stockcharts.com[w,a]daclynay[db][pc20!d20,2!f]&pref=G (2) 10% downside into Dec 20 as QQQ Max Pain is still at 25-26 stockcharts.com[w,a]daclynay[db][pc20!f]&pref=G (3) More upside to COMP 1600+ into Jan 2003 till we get BPCOMPQ 55 or so: stockcharts.com[w,a]waclynay[df][pc20!f][J8524180,Y]&pref=G (4) Once we hit COMP 1600+ and BPCOMPQ 55, the fate of this rally should be decided: either it's another bear rally and we go down to new lower lows (COMP 1000 or lower) or it's not and we retrace 50% and go higher afterwards; I expect the bear rally conjecture to win out (5) I don't like these VIX and VXN charts as I don't think they bottomed yet: stockcharts.com[w,a]waclynay[df][pd20,2!c20!f]&pref=G stockcharts.com[w,a]waclynay[df][pd20,2!c20!f]&pref=G (6) I also don't like this equity P/C ratio 21 dma chart; again no bottom yet: vtoreport.com So, in summary, I see upside for some more weeks till BPCOMPQ and other indicators hit very overbought levels but I also see that this upside will give us the top before new lows (Zeev and Jeff both seem to lean this way as well as far as I can tell). I would appreciate any analytically supported opposing viewpoints.