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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AugustWest who wrote (14700)	11/30/2002 12:24:33 PM
From: Neenny	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57110

The "S" word has begun. Think we'll get the 20 inches??

To: AugustWest who wrote (14700)	11/30/2002 12:49:31 PM
From: Jorj X Mckie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57110

if the charts are mimicking each other, it would indicate that next week is a big rally. VIX Weekly stockcharts.com[r,a]whclynay[d19970701,20021130][pb50][iub14!la12,26,9][J8559920,Y]&listNum=1 SPX weekly (same time period) stockcharts.com[r,a]whclynay[d19970701,20021130][pb50][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G BPSPX topped out around 80 and started to decline from there....while the market continued upward. stockcharts.com[r,a]whclynay[d19970701,20021130][pb50][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G BPCOMPQ topped out in 1998 at the current levels stockcharts.com[r,a]whclynay[d19970701,20021130][pb50][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G COMP 5000 just around the corner... stockcharts.com[r,a]whclynay[d19970701,20021130][pb50][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G But the VXN setup is much more similar to the August 2000-August 2001 timeframe than the 1998 timeframe. This suggests another big selloff in our future. Based on the VXN Map, I have us at the first week of July 01. stockcharts.com[r,a]whclynay[d19970701,20021130][pb50][iub14!la12,26,9][J8560488,Y]&listNum=1

To: AugustWest who wrote (14700)	11/30/2002 7:44:21 PM
From: PuddleGlum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57110

We're looking at the same stuff, Auggie. True, the VIX was contained for most of 1999, but look at relative values instead of or in addition to absolute values. Larry Dudash applies Williams%R (or something equivalent) to VIX, and I use this same idea to some advantage. What bothers me is what I see in the VIX before '97. It seems far less consistent about marking significant tops and bottoms. Does the VIX just "not work" during certain phases of the market? It looks to me like we could continue up to 1550-1575 on the Naz before heading down again. That's about where I'll have to draw the line on my recent bear call. A close over 1575 and I will probably have to throw out whatever bearishness I have left. On the downside I can see 1350 and 1250 as support levels. I don't think we go lower than 1250. Other musings.... Larry D. seems to think that the July lows marked a significant bottom. True, the market went lower in Sept. and Oct., but the more I look the more I think that there is something more substantial to that bottom than meets the eye. The economy is still ill, but I'm looking for hidden positives. It could well be that 6 months from now we look back and wonder why we didn't see the good news right before our eyes. I realize, thought, that when friends and neighbors are getting pink slips it can make things look mighty bleak.