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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (53209)	12/1/2002 9:33:26 PM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 54805

John, << everyone being able to snoop everything was the reason why AMPS was never going to take off >> Authenticating ANSI-41 AMPS uses the same identical authentication engine (Lucent algorithm) that ANSI-41 based CDMA and TDMA use. It has been strengthened since the original 1997 code crack. Was then. Is now. - Eric -

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (53209)	12/2/2002 11:16:22 AM
From: Thomas Mercer-Hursh	Respond to of 54805

it's as though a service has to be absolutely perfect before consumers would adopt it. Not at all ... as you say, Microsoft proves that handily! The question here ... and that what I consider it, a question ... is not whether there is likely to be movement to widespread wireless high bandwidth usage, but how fast that movement will be and which technology(ies) will be chosen to support it.

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (53209)	12/3/2002 3:08:18 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 54805

buy/sell/short ranges for the gorillas/kings I follow: QCOM: short above 36 in increments, cover in 30-36 area. NTAP: short above 30, sell long position in 10-25 range. Go long in 5-10 area (that is, buy in increments in that range, not being fully invested until the bottom of the range). EMC: sell long position in 8-12 area. No plans to go long, after I get out of the position I bought last year. AMAT: short at 17 and up, (actually, I'm using CYMI for shorting, a more volatile small-cap semi-equip. When I go long, I'll use AMAT). Go long in 5-10 area. CSCO: short at 15 and up. Cover short in 10-15 area, go long in 5-10 area. JDSU: sell long position in 3-6 area. Short at 7 and up. Go long in 1-2 area. ARMHY: go long in 1.5-3 area, sell in widely-spaced increments above 6. Reasoning: 1. it's still a Bear Market, we are in the midst of another furious Bear Rally, and valuations are stretched in several areas, particularly semis, semi-equips, housing. The SOX has now almost doubled off it's most recent low (209 was the October low, it hit 393 yesterday). Any near-doubling of a stock or sector index is a selling opportunity, in a Bear Market. 2. The latest economic data was interpreted as good news, as consumer spending was up 0.4%. However, incomes were only up 0.1%, so 3/4 of the "good news" was created by increased consumer debt. In recessions (this is a very robust historical pattern), consumers get scared, cut back on spending, save more, and decrease debt loads. This has not yet happened, but it is inevitable. When it happens (timing uncertain, I'm surprised it hasn't happened yet), we will see the economic recovery (and business spending on storage, and semi capex, and the 3G buildout, etc., etc.) delayed yet again. 3. There is a high likelihood of more "exogenous shocks" to the markets, in 2003. We are losing the war on terrorism: in spite of a year+ of intensive efforts, we haven't captured Bin Laden, haven't dismantled his organization. Our enemies have regrouped and resumed their attacks. Expect more unpleasant surprises. 4. I am still seeing many signs of investor tolerance for Creative Accounting. QCOM investors are still tolerating a valuation based on pro forma "profits", and tolerating conference calls which barely mention the GAAP numbers. Cisco investors are still tolerating a company policy of handing out way too many stock options, and not properly accounting for them. The fact that intense lobbying (mainly by tech companies) has defeated attempts to reform accounting of employee stock options, is a sign that the Bubble excesses haven't been cleared yet. I will consider going long on QCOM, when I listen to a conference call in which pro forma numbers are not used. Disclosure: I am currently short QCOM, CSCO, CYMI (semi-equip), WMT (consumer spending), and CMH (housing). Currently long NTAP, EMC, BBH (biotech index), JDSU, ARMHY.