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To: Win Smith who wrote (140)	12/3/2002 9:25:10 AM
From: Win Smith	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 603

Andrew Revkin, Can Global Warming Be Studied Too Much? nytimes.com [ Even a passing reference to thermohaline circulation here. Clip: ] Most scientists concur on the basics. Atmospheric levels of the heat-trapping gases, mainly carbon dioxide from burning coal and oil, have increased by more than a third since the start of the Industrial Revolution, and there is wide agreement that they will probably double from preindustrial concentrations by the end of the century, driven by energy demands of developing countries. International and American panels of experts have concluded that these gases have caused most of the warming trend over the last 50 years. But there is still a wide range of projections indicating how much warmer things may get, how storm and drought patterns may respond and what the effects will be on ecosystems, agriculture and health. These uncertainties are unlikely to be dispelled soon. But many climate experts say that some effects can reasonably be predicted and that prudence calls for more action now. Dr. Warren M. Washington, a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, likened the situation to the debate over smoking's link to cancer. "Even with smoking, it's still basically a statistical thing," said Dr. Washington, who is chairman of the National Science Board, a panel that advises the White House and Congress. "But vested interests do not want to take action based on early indications, and with climate early indications is what we have." If greenhouse gas concentrations double, climate experts expect substantial disruptions of ecosystems and water supplies, coastal damage as sea levels rise and intensified drought and downpour cycles. Even more calamitous surprises could lie in store, including disruptions in the Atlantic Ocean currents that help warm Europe. . . .