Hi paul_philp; Re: "Stating that there is a variance in the number of predictions on the start date of the war is different from saying that the start date for the war is slipping."
I'm not exactly sure what you mean here. The individuals who predicted that war would start before the present time, have, by and large, have either given up on war, are not making explicit predictions anymore, or have slipped their dates. My view is that there will never be a war, and in that sense, the war is not slipping at all, at least according to the mathematicians.
Probably the best example of a delayed war prediction is Debka:
Nadine Carroll, January 2, 2002
Thanks, Hawk. BTW, did you see that Debka is reporting that the US is shipping chemical warfare antidotes to Tel Aviv, presumably in preparation for the attack on Iraq? #reply-16853739
Nadine, March 1, 2002
Don't know when, and there seems to be an active debate about the schedule, though even many of the moderates (like Pollack) seem to be arguing only for delay and more preparation, not against an Iraqi invasion. For now, I would place my bets with debka -- sooner rather than later. #reply-17135079
carranza2, in reply
Debka published reports about specific US activity in preparation for an ostensible ground attack against Iraq shortly after September 11. I wish I had copied them. The reports naturally concerned me, and I made a mental note of them. Debka lost credibility with me when nothing took place. #reply-17135441
Nadine Carroll, in reply
I don't remember the reports you're referring to. Debka has been reporting of preparations for an Iraq invasion all along, and wishing for an Iraq invasion (their analyses tend to be wishful imo), but I don't remember them predicting one for last fall, just as a followup to the Afghanistan campaign. Now, they're predicting a spring invasion. This may still be wishful thinking. #reply-17135716
Debka, April 8, 2002
What appears to be inevitable at this moment is an early date for the US assault on Iraq. #reply-17301170
CobaltBlue, August 12, 2002
Debka certainly is interesting today. In a nutshell, they claim we've already started to attack Iraq, covertly. I guess August is as good a time as any. Nothing much gets done in August in Washington, anyway. Congress comes back after Labor Day and gets handed a fait accompli. What the hey, I'm game. Let's roll. #reply-17866360
Nadine Carroll, August 12, 2002
On one hand, they keep saying, no attack on Iraq from SA. On the other hand, debka says that the US is attacking Iraq right now from SA. #reply-17866411
Nadine Carroll, August 12, 2002
Another debka dot for you to connect:
More US Troops in Jordan for Iraq Offensive #reply-17868855
Bilow, August 13, 2002
I admit that Nadine Carroll had me worried, what with the Stratfor / Debka articles. In fact, when I woke up this morning I (sheepishly) turned on the radio to see if there was an invasion going on. #reply-17872544
Nadine Carroll, September 5, 2002
Debka's latest report is on the Hizbullah-Syrian attack on Israel that is planned to coincide with the US attack on Iraq. #reply-17956794 also see #reply-17959944
Debka now:
DEBKAfile sources in Kurdistan: Fall of Halabja to al Qaeda-backed Kurdish forces would set back US Iraq war preparations
-- Carl
P.S. Is what you mean that when January 16th rolls around and no war, you're going to not slip, and instead will be predicting no war at all? |
