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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: skinowski who wrote (60872)	12/5/2002 12:23:57 AM
From: Shack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Quite frankly I am not counting on my diagonal, it is just one compelling scenario. I have oodles.-g/ng The way we have broken down in tech tells me there is more down coming here, more than the dipsters think. I see what you're seeing with regard to a completed diagonal and I respect it. If nothing else, we have most definitely fallen out of this wedge: marketswing.com Which implies that we are at least going back to its point of origin at 871. That of course would kill my diagonal but keep yours alive. If its a completed diagonal, we will go much lower of course. However several things are nagging at me. I still feel that we have not seen enough bullishness for the IT top to be in place. Believe it or not, I have a 10-day MA reading on my equity P/C of .74 (all exchanges, not just CBOE) which actually correlates more with a bottom than a top (.8 is my line in the sand where I simply buy blindly-g/ng). Meanwhile I have watched the VIX/QQV (especially the QQV) climb steadily since November 20th! Shit, we were goin' up most of that time! Why am I the only one who finds that remarkably weird? So where does that leave me....well...confused. Now here is a slab of bull for ya': Lets assume that wedge is "real" in the TA sense (not an ED). It means we tank to SPX 871 right here. What would that look like in the big picture? To me it would look like we had an impulsive launch into late October, then an ungodly amount of sideways Jell-o with what would likely be an impulsive down at the end of said Jell-O taking us back to its beginnings. You know what that looks like to me? An 'A' into late October, then a 'B' down finishing shortly. Then guess what happens, an impulsive launch into January taking us likely to SPX 1000. I am not saying this is my favoured, but the divergences in the VIX et al. and the equity P/C numbers are giving me pause here. Not to mention the recent spike in the money supply.