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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: exp who wrote (19217)	12/10/2002 1:03:36 PM
From: Jeff	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 30712

JEFF bullish? ZEEV bearish? I'm confused <ggg> you must be confused cause i see 700-800 coming....<ggg> only question is when..... as far as the upside is concerned....let me explain... when i started this thread in may....my calls going down to the october bottom were dead on correct because i was using bear market t/a because we were in a bear trend in the overall big bear market....so D-blows...downside pierce and suckers....H&S patterns worked great.... once we got on that geo flat in october and i called a low and a ramp back up to an options high over 1200....something happened.....what was thought to be just a short ramp before the dump to 1000....well....a certain signal happened that warned the trend just changed to bull like the april 01 and sept 01 bigger rallies.....i posted that warning and said the "backwards" retrace we had going was off.....broken.....but that bull trend change wasn't confirmed till that 1347 top broke and AV kicked in..... AV is a bull trend indicator...... so the trend then changed to bull where AV...upside pierce and suckers....and inverted head and shoulder patterns are the indicators that work best..... so right now....the trend is still bull within the overall big bear....so i still have to "respect" the bull t/a and what it shows..... until i get that certain signal the trend changed back to bear......i have to look at the upside potential in order not to get toasted short..... i have models pointing to 1700-1800 area....and theres potential for weekly AV and a "HUGE" inverse head and shoulders pattern forming on the SOX that if they happen will send this to that target and crush shorts one last time before the long long bleed to 800...... so as long as the trend is still bull....bull t/a signals still rule..... the whole key to t/a is using the right signals for the correct trend....i know what signals work in each.... most who were wrong and didn't see the big down this year and got toasted were using bull t/a signals in a bear trend....they didn't work to good..... shorts who got toasted by the recent AV were still thinking bear t/a in the new bull trend..... right now...the trend is still bull...theres some more bull t/a signals forming that would take blind shorts out to the wood shed going into next year before the bottom finally falls out for good..... so until i get my signal to reverse the trend back to bear.... i have to respect the upside for now.....and respect the correct t/a signals for the current trend....