To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (10355 ) 12/12/2002 7:52:52 PM From: stockman_scott Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 89467 -- TECHNICALS - Forex market views and key levels -- NEW YORK, Dec 12 (Reuters) - Following is a selection of comments from analysts on important technical developments in the foreign exchange market: JORDAN KOTICK, TECHNICAL ANALYST, J.P. MORGAN CHASE "Right now we've got a dollar bearish scenario unfolding, coming along with a technical breakout in the gold market - which has been in a range for the last six months and has done some significant technical work to the upside - and at the same time as the stock market is looking vulnerable. We're now seeing the euro and the Swiss franc on the attack, but cable has lagged because euro/Sterling has remained so bid. The next couple of days will be very important for the dollar." EURO/DOLLAR - "The big number is the July high at $1.0215. People will be protecting it up there, but given where we are, the dollar is very vulnerable. "Above $1.0215, the next number to watch is $1.03. That is the 50 percent retracement of the ceiling from September 1998 to October 2000, and my bias is that the 50 percent retracement is the most important." DOLLAR/SWISS - "Dollar/Swiss has important levels at 1.4385-50 francs, which is equivalent to the $1.02 in euro/dollar. Unlike euro/dollar, dollar/Swiss still has a bit of work to do to get there. But the dollar is very vulnerable, and you would have to look for at least a move to that area." DOLLAR/YEN - "Dollar/yen does like to march to its own drummer, but the dollar is vulnerable here too. We've had a range correction of the past couple of days, but I think there will be an attack on 122.40 yen, and that is not insignificant. That is the 50 percent retracement of the rally from the November low to the December high. It stopped there last week, and will reattack it, opening up the downside even further. GOLD - "On gold, I would suggest keeping a close eye on $335-340, which is both the October 1999 high and a 50 percent retracement of the entire decline from January 1996 to August 1999." JIM CHOREK, TECHNICAL ANALYST, CHOREK.COM DOLLAR/YEN - "The recovery from 122.53 yen, albeit sharp, was indeed a correction holding below the 123.36 resistance. The subsequent top at 123.28 yen is now fuel a push back into the 122.53 yen support. Sustained penetration will target the 122.37/06 yen support area." EURO/DOLLAR - "The rise above the $1.0170 wave (iii) high has the current rally closing in on the $1.0206/30 heavy resistance barrier. We have to be really careful as the market approaches this area. Wave patterns suggest that a wave (v) top will form in this area. But rather than pick a top just because prices are near a resistance, it's always best to await a confirmation sign of a reversal. For now only a move below $1.0142 (38.2 percent since 1.0056) to $1.0127 (reaction low) would be such a signal. Initial support is at $1.0153 (61.8 percent since $1.0127)." GOLD - "Spot gold is surging ahead, after completing its wave two correction from $329.10 at $322.20, well above the $320.82 support (61.8 percent of wave 1). The recent rise above $326.46 (61.8 percent of $329.10-$322.20) confirms the bull's return in wave three. It is now moving above the $392.10 wave two high and should soon conquer the $331.15 wave three high. Penetration will target $335.62, where wave three would equal 61.8 percent of the distance traveled in wave one." ((U.S. Financial Markets Desk, 646-223-6314)) Currency bid prices at 1:52 p.m. EST (1752 GMT). All data taken from Reuters calculated from the levels at 5:30 p.m. (22:30 GMT) in the previous New York session. Last US Close % YTD % 2001 11 Dec. Change Change Close ------------------------------------------------------------- Euro/dlr <EUR=> 1.0186 1.0081 +1.04 +14.40 0.8904 Dlr/yen <JPY=> 122.57 123.61 -0.84 -6.88 131.63 Euro/yen <EURJPY=> 124.88 124.63 +0.20 +6.52 117.24 Dlr/swiss <CHF=> 1.4486 1.4613 -0.87 -12.70 1.6594 Stg/dlr <GBP=> 1.5810 1.5767 +0.27 +8.73 1.4541 Dlr/cad <CAD=> 1.5550 1.5555 -0.03 -2.31 1.5917 Aus/dlr <AUD=> 0.5653 0.5603 +0.89 +10.71 0.5106 Euro/swiss <EURCHF=> 1.4762 1.4732 +0.20 -0.12 1.4780 Euro/stg <EURGBP=> 0.6444 0.6388 +0.88 +5.24 0.6123 All spots <FX=> Tokyo spots <AFX=> Europe spots <EFX=> Volatilities <FXVOL> Tokyo Forex market info from BOJ <TKYFX> World central bank news [CEN] Economic Forecasts...[ECI/I] Official rates...[INT/RATE] Forex Diary.......[MI/DIARY] Top events........[M/DIARY] Diaries...........[DIARY] Diaries Index........[IND/DIARY] Press Digests....[PRESS] Polls on G7 economies..[SURVEY/] European markets......[MARKETS/] (C) Reuters 2002. All rights reserved. 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