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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TREND1 who wrote (20045)	12/13/2002 7:44:12 PM
From: Pigboy	Respond to of 30712

i think he's watching that weekly for the av still. - g -

To: TREND1 who wrote (20045)	12/16/2002 12:07:01 AM
From: Jeff	Read Replies (10) \| Respond to of 30712

What is your take on the current market ? Larry Dudash well....let me start at the beginning so others know what i'm talking about..... i went on zeev's thread in april after not posting for over a year...didn't post because i got tired of the message board crap and ego's....but i seen many getting toasted by this bear and i was following down this retrace thing and figured maybe i could help some folks out.....so i was making post like this... Message 17394068 obviously being a bull thread i got attacked.....but i got some pm's from a few nice folks who had my view.....so instead of writing the same things over and over to different people....i started this thread...as you can see by the header....it started from my private chats..... the main theme was that bubbles will retrace to their roots.....and we had two past major bubbles to study...the 29-32 dow and the nikkei.... well i already knew since dec 2000 that nasdaq was going "backwards" and it was following closely with the 29-32 dow bubble......so i had this retrace chart i posted here showing what it was doing..... stockcharts.com[h,a]daclynay[d19960414,19980801][pb9!b13!b20!d20,2!h.02,.20!b50!b100!b200!b125!b150!f][iLa4,9,5!Lh5,5!Li10,10!Lp14,3,3!Ll14!Lo14!Lb14!Le5,10,1]&pref=G the idea was....follow it "backwards"....the tops were running near perfect and the biggest error was 6%..... obviously....and this was proven as fact on this thread over the months as we followed it down......it was near perfect.....heres this years chart..... stockcharts.com[h,a]daclynay[d20011101,20021213][pb9!b13!b20!d20,2!h.02,.20!b50!b100!b200!b125!b150!f][iLa4,9,5!Lh5,5!Li10,10!Lp14,3,3!Ll14!Lo14!Lb14!Le5,10,1]&pref=G this thread started near the 1759...1748 retrace....tops... you can see clear as day the long down on both the backwards retrace and this years charts leading to the 1192 bottom (1194 retrace)...then to the 1426 top (1400 retrace) and then back down to what was thought would be the 1000 bottom....... and all that was called daily here being confirmed along the way with d-blows and pierce and sucker plays and voodoo....<ggg> so from may right to the first week of october....near perfect.....most of that ride was with just the same few folks here as most didn't believe this was happening as i drew it up in may.....many missed it because the backwards chart confused them...or they didn't understand d-blows or P&S..... anyway.....at a critical point in oct.....on what i called the geo flat.....and right before options.....i saw a low and run back up over 1200.....but it needed to stop below 1250 or something was wrong.....and because i set guidelines early on and was always looking for this to run off course.....the limit upside could only be a 6% error above that 1269 top which would have been around 1340's and we had that solid top around 1347......so that was the backwards retrace charts limit....but the overall bubble retrace still had a major top of 1459 that still had to hold... so since the run from 1108 to over 1250 was so fast and done within days....we did nothing for a few weeks as we were stuck below 1340's and above 1279..... but then AV showed up....something i talked about for months... but because its a bull indicator many didn't get to see it in action in the big downtrend...they only saw it on the minute charts.....all they knew about was d-blows because they watched them kill the market..... but AV is the opposite.....and i warned and warned and warned again what would happen to shorts if AV hits.... well...slow AV hit....i called it.....and that slow AV sent the nasdaq up through 1347 to break the backwards retrace as we knew it.....and sent the market to 1429.... and yes...i called the "backwards" retrace over then....and started getting folks familiar with some rules of AV.... Message 18194274 Message 18200739 and the main warning was the trailing full will kill the shorts......but i was taking off for a few weeks.....and all i could do was warn..... what happened...the trailing full killed the shorts and while i was gone the 1459 broke and the whole bubble retrace thing as i had it setup since may was over..... the backwards part was over at 1347....the big picture went out at 1459....those guidelines were set before they happened and talked about before they broke.... so as of those breaks......its back to square 1...... the obvious task at hand is to look for the highest possible upside now....because we know the downside.....why do we know the downside.....because the bubble "did not" retrace it all.....it stopped "early" at a critical point as all the retrace followers know.....we saw it happen.....and because we know about the 29-32 and nikkei retrace.....we know theres more down than we saw.... going back to the 29-32 chart.....we could still be in that first few months of 32.....where you see a double top was the final top before a very brutal down that i always called the final killing fields.... sharelynx.net if we DT at 1521 area....that could be it.....thats one possible upside to watch..... or take the other bubble....nikkei.... stockcharts.com[h,a]daclynay[d19921214,20021214][pb9!b13!b20!d20,2!h.02,.20!b50!b100!b200!b125!b150!f][iLa4,9,5!Lh5,5!Li10,10!Lp14,3,3!Ll14!Lo14!Lb14!Le5,10,1]&pref=G we would be in that 12800-20800 up part..... and 1521 would not be the top.....it would be higher....i already posted that up target.... one thing both show....the down isn't over.... and since the map i had since dec 00 is gone....its all new again so you have to look at all the possibilities.... to hit the upside highest point i found something i said i won't post again....and what could cause that.......a war rally for one.....the other i won't talk about... downside....same old targets.....on the theory the bubble didn't retrace it all....... wild card.....maybe nasdaq does its own thing here and breaks away from 29-32 or nikkei.....i do have something that says the ultimate bottom could be in 2004 and not 2003...... so....i hope others used that retrace i had this year....whether it made you money or just saved some from heavy losses in a nasty downtrend that many never believed would go that low......obviously it could have done nothing but help folks.....but after doing all that by drawing up that retrace and having the guts to sit here daily since the thread started and back it all up....and then getting criticized by back stabbers for doing nothing but trying to help others....... i'll never do this again like i did this year..... along the way i showed how i did it all.....and the know-it all types still insist my t/a is wrong even though i proved it by calling it before things happened......from DB'S to P&S to AV..... well....theres more than one way to skin a cat as the saying goes.... and theres more than one way to use a variety of different indicators...... i had a good few years as this market crashed....so i thought i would come out and post again after seeing so many getting hurt and knowing the bear and downside wasn't over.....i didn't have to do it....i wasn't looking for anything.....and i didn't benefit off others from being here and sharing for free my ideas..... i'm sorry if i made a few thread experts look bad with that retrace because they didn't have it or post it like i did and they got caught on the wrongside several times.....or to show a different way to use t/a and make correct calls with it after them saying it was stupid or i had the "wrong" settings......that made them look bad when my calls proved right.....but then again....after i started this thread....i stayed here....they came looking for me and started the attacks.....it was never my intention to make them look bad......or hurt their ego.....why they felt the need to try and prove me wrong is beyond me.... i just came out and posted again to try and help others....i spent the year helping others....i did what i set out to do... but i won't do it again.....i'll leave that up to the real t/a experts......after all...they should know more than this country bumkin....but then again....its not "how much you know" but knowing what works and "focusing" on just that..... this small town boy is going back to helping himself and enjoy life and not feeling obligated to try and save the world when their are so many who don't appreciate the effort....or i end up hurting fragile ego's because i have a different way from the norm.....that happens to work.... personally....i'm proud of what i did here......nobody has ever drawn a precise map like that backwards chart and had it work as great as it did.....and had the guts to sit here daily and make the needed calls along the way....i've never seen anybody do that before and likely will never see anybody do it again...and knowing it helped a few others along the way..... but...i also remembered why i got tired of the threads and stopped posting in the first place.....too many ego's and over analysis paralysis that just starts fights and makes you lose focus.....too many distractions...... i have better things to do than get back stabbed for trying to help others..... and for those who thought this was just an ego thing for me.....people with ego's don't give away their secrets so others can see what they do and can maybe someday be better than them.....thats not the way it works.....the ego maniacs keep things to themselves to maintain the power they need to be top dog.....otherwise they would be no better than anybody else....... i showed everybody the retrace to follow exactly the way it was.....and all the t/a to go with it that i was using.... for those that i helped and appreicated the effort...glad i could help....that was my goal....i hope you may have learned a few things along the way.... for those who didn't like what i did here....well...i guess you found out you are not as smart as you think you are and others may have "different" ways of doing things.....my only regrets might be that because i posted that retrace and showed the downside targets that the ankle-biters...know it alls...and back stabbers didn't lose more money because of it...because most never figured the 1387 sept 01 lows would break and then they thought for sure the july lows where the ultimate bottom....once i realized those types were around and i might have saved them from deeper losses by showing the retrace pattern....well....i'll never do that again...and its because of those types that i hate the message boards...in real life i wouldn't give people like that the shirt of my back if they needed it....and i sure won't waste my time doing this when i don't have to..... so...i'm just a nobody from small town u.s.a....who's going back to the things i enjoy best in life... being a nobody....and enjoying every minute of it....<ggg> and that sure beats being spit on by cyber freaks when all i did was post things that could do nothing but help others.....even they might have learned something new..... :-( to the nice folks out there who appreciated my efforts and i might have saved from much pain with that retrace....beware the experts and know it alls who say you can only do things one way.....there are things out there they don't even know about.....and there are many different ways you can do things......have a merry christmas and good luck in the years ahead.....