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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (61479)	12/13/2002 10:29:28 PM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Dollar falling long-term interest rates rising stocks falling oil rising gold rising I'd just come back to Israel from Britain where I experienced a once a century or so hurricane in London. The news all seemed to portend something about to happen. I remember seeing some guy in the street talking on the phone saying "sell everything" in English in the days as the market began to slide. I was very bearish though didn't have any kind of investments. Just an undergrad economics and geography student :) I was staying at the Youth Hostel in Jerusalem while between living places. Met a good friend who I still know today who was staying there from Frankfurt. Then the crash happened and everyone who wasn't paying attention suddenly was and talking about another Great Depression etc... So that was my earlier experience of waiting for the Big Kahuna... No it's a myth :) David

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (61479)	12/14/2002 11:38:38 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Exactly. Bonds point to a crash up today, and we closed at a support point for the dollar, and below max pain for stocks. I guess bonds were this high relative to SP only in 1979-1980. This projects a mild rally next week to around 920 or so on the SP, who knows. If the dollar 103.5 support is taken out, which I believe will at some point, maybe even now, then lights out, we'll have a crash. I do think, however, bonds have to put a top long before the crash starts. Maybe just stocks crash, bonds go ballistic to point to 70% undervaluation of stocks vs bonds, who knows. Maybe it just points to depression ahead. But with the Fed printing like crazy, we'll just have to see what happens. There must be a "lights out" phase of the bear market, before we have a really decent rally