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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (16635)	12/14/2002 5:10:23 PM
From: MulhollandDrive	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57110

last week ben stein stated on cavuto that individual investors should not even bother with buying individual stocks. anyone who thinks the can determine value based on public information is semi-delusional...<g> if you're going to that just pick a sector that is currently in favor, pick a stock and be on the right side of the overall market trend.

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (16635)	12/14/2002 6:35:18 PM
From: GraceZ	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57110

Even good companies get hit in a bear market. Well then the more important question isn't whether or not a company's stock is fairly valued or under valued but whether or not we're in a bear market. It might seem like a silly question considering we've had two-three years where the indices have declined, but it's not as easy to answer as one would think. Back in 1999-2000 as the whole world was certain we were in a bull market and the indices rose day after day the majority of the stocks in the NYSE were in a bear market and the bull got more and more narrow. A close examination of earnings showed a hollowing out of earnings even while headlines proclaimed record top end. Now everyone assumes we're in a bear yet you have numerous companies whose stocks have yearly returns above 100%. Hard to find that in a bear that punishes everyone even the good companies. It's hard to see unless you actually are long and looking for longs. Every year for three years someone has told me that there was nothing worth buying and yet at the end of the year there are always lots of stocks with an exceptional return. On the residential real estate crash thread the portfolio at the top contains stocks that some shorted when the thread was started. Meanwhile the portfolio at the end of the first year had no less than 5 stocks whose appreciation was 100% or more. People kept watching them steadily rise talking about how bad it was going to be in real estate waiting for the time when they could short them! It was comical. Waiting for that perfect 20-30% gain while passing up 100% in front of their faces. Most of those homies had PEs of 6-8 when the thread was started so I don't think it was the high PE that turned them off.