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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GraceZ who wrote (16674)	12/14/2002 6:53:29 PM
From: Jorj X Mckie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57110

Well then the more important question isn't whether or not a company's stock is fairly valued or under valued but whether or not we're in a bear market. Yes, exactly. Back in 1999-2000 as the whole world was certain we were in a bull market and the indices rose day after day the majority of the stocks in the NYSE were in a bear market and the bull got more and more narrow. A close examination of earnings showed a hollowing out of earnings even while headlines proclaimed record top end. You should go back and read the "Point & Figure Charting" thread from February/March 2000. That narrowing of stocks in a bull market was a big topic of discussion. Based on bullish percentages, I could make a case that the bull market on the NYSE ended in 1998. Now everyone assumes we're in a bear yet you have numerous companies whose stocks have yearly returns above 100%. Hard to find that in a bear that punishes everyone even the good companies. That assumes that the bear is done and that housing (and a couple of other sectors) managed to dodge the bullet. Back in the mania, there were many here on SI who could see that the move was unhealthy. And many underestimated the ability of the mania to continue on an irrational trajectory. In the end, their fundamental analysis was correct, but that is likely little comfort for those who were selling based on common sense analysis. I see the housing market as being in a similar situation. How long do you think that the housing sector can keep up it's trajectory? I wouldn't want to make the call based on fundamentals, that's for sure.