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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (16680)	12/14/2002 7:04:25 PM
From: MulhollandDrive	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57110

"whether or not we are in a bear market" well, yeah.. way too many declarations that the bear is done to do a final post mortem... zealllc.com

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (16680)	12/14/2002 7:28:37 PM
From: GraceZ	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57110

Based on bullish percentages, I could make a case that the bull market on the NYSE ended in 1998. I believe you. Money flow showed exactly the same thing, as it now shows the bear is over. How long do you think that the housing sector can keep up it's trajectory? Oh I think it has peaked but it clearly hadn't peaked when those guys started calling the housing sector top a year and a half ago. Housing is a cyclical industry always has been and always will be. Still one doesn't start shorting while a sector is still rising you wait for it to start to fail. Better to go long and then sell double your position when it's time to sell if you want to go short. If you're long you'll have a better idea of when it's time to go short, you'll conserve your capital and your psychology simply because you'll be making money until the sector is exhausted and you won't have thrown away a lot of change getting your buy stops run. Perhaps my use of the homies as an example was a poor one, it was just the most visible example of people ignoring the evidence in front of their faces and believing their prejudices. I could have used those educational stocks, like ceco, coco, apol...etc instead (which, before you tell me, are probably over extended). If I start pulling up charts here of last year's big performers you'll see they are from a whole bunch of different sectors of the economy. Bad economic times aren't bad for everyone, they make people and companies stronger while killing off the excesses. I think a company that does well in a slow economic environment is far more likely to last then one started in a boom. I remember a New Yorker article a while back which was about all the magazines that were started in the worst of economic times. Overwhelmingly the ones that were started in recessions and depressions outlasted the zillions that were started in booms.