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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t2 who wrote (20153)	12/15/2002 12:41:26 PM
From: Win-Lose-Draw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

t2, the/a problem is the benefits of being a huge importer are counterbalanced by the significant downside of having your currency held - and to a degree controlled - by the people you are importing from. what prevents them from using that hammer is the fact that we keep importing: threaten to reduce that and they may as well use the currency hammer to retaliate. it's a two-edged sword. for both sides. i believe the technical description is co-dependency. -g/ng- the US is looking decades into the future ant-decades, maybe. the powers that be in the US have demonstrated a tremendous capability to see absolutely nothing beyond the next election.

To: t2 who wrote (20153)	12/15/2002 1:02:27 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

You really think the FED/government officials are totally ignorant of this happening? I believe they know exactly what is going on...even if by chance they did not a few years ago, they do know now. And precicely what the F are they doing about it? Precicely the wrong FN thing. Encouraging more debt. Encouraging more PRODUCTION. That is STUPID. We have oversupply and our stupid govt wants to expand capital investment. What will that do except INCREASE CAPACITY. They have taken this road for years, now there is hell to pay. We should have paid the price several years ago. But no, they bail out LTCM, pump fuel for a nonsense Y2K scare that was totally absurd. Lower interest rates in the late 90's cause they were TOTAL morons. Pump so much liquidity everywhere with nowhere to go encouraging Totally stupid loand to Brazil and Argentina. Fueling a moronic credit bubble in the US. Actually they are scared sh*tless now, IF they have any brains. I am not sure they are as smart as you think. They sure have a track record of being total dumb asses. M

To: t2 who wrote (20153)	12/15/2002 1:06:45 PM
From: LTK007	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

<<You really think the FED/government officials are totally ignorant of this happening? I believe they know exactly what is going on...even if by chance they did not a few years ago, they do know now>> of course they are keenly aware of this, far more than they will let on; but being able to do anything about is a strong odds against. You know the old adage, trying to stop deflation is like pushing a string. Deflation is the numero uno fear of many economist as it is an imploding event rather than an explosive event. it is easier to bring inflation back to earth than dig deflation out of sinkhole. But the Dr. Marc Faber fellow i consider so intently is because his ideas fall together in my mind as damned logical. His scenario is a brush with deflation that will ironically set a move into rampant inflation, this is withinn a unspecified timeframe other than it being a process within the next 10 years. For me, the element as i see it, is that a massive bubble and it's process of crumbling creates cracks and fissures and a pandora's box of complexities. Stiglitz, who was in the inner circle of Washington economists, said he felt Greenspan, Rubin and Sumner he was witnessing the action of Hubris at play. They(Greenspan/Rubin and Sumner etc.) had found the answer to the riddle of boom and bust cycles, and it would never happen again. Stiglitz now is outspoken against Globalization. For me , i simply simplified all this some time back as a problem of Entropy. The decision to dump in the first week of April 2000 was i felt i detected what i was looking for, the Big Bang had reached its' apex and now Entropy was the future(the terrific Tradeable Swings come, i feel, from desperate attempts to re-energize an entropic process--well good luck Fed:). I was at that time going to change my handle to Entropy but found a fellow already had it:)! There now are 4 variations of entropy handles on SI. Max