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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (23959)	12/20/2002 2:59:04 PM
From: Broken_Clock	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

stockcharts.com What's the trend SOTB? 330 and 340 fell like a house of cards. Don't stay out too long. Sometimes it's good to take a linger view...

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (23959)	1/17/2003 5:44:59 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 36161

Held, Sold, or Folded on Gold ? ...haven't been able to follow the board since the week before Christmas & too many posts to review; so what's the sentiment here ? Who's sold, who's held; what Cash/Gold levels are people at ? Auto-sell stops, triggered yet another 5% sell on the knock on HUI 150's door...have now sold 80% of my Gold Stocks here and am now down to 10% Gold Stocks and 80% Cash (5% misc long (Energy, Defense, Utilities),5% short on S&P; on a portfolio basis. Too easy of a predictable move to Gold here as a hedge to War with Iraq. We moved waaaayyyy tooooo easy & too fast from that HUI 105-115 pullback to 140-150 here....when, it's that easy & that fast - RING THY CA$H REGI$TER ! ...and that's what I did. A Gulf War Deja Vu all over again play here... nothing more, nothing less. Untill the fundamental beliefs of the masses change longerm (keyword is LONGterm) toward Gold (they haven't) and toward the still irrational broad market multiple/valuations, the longterm strength of the US economy, the realization of the true,longterm costs and the degree of the coming decade long misallocation of capital needed to fund homeland security and the coming decade long War on Global Terrorism; we are not going considerably higher with Old Yeller... The don't believe LONGterm in Old Yeller yet... but, they will...be patient and take what they give you; as a true contrarian's contrarian, always should ~ The recent rally in gold was NOT due to a longterm fundamental belief shift concerning all the fundamental drivers of a longterm gold upcycle; but rather it was a weakhanded temporary hedge for War with Iraq... nothing more, nothing less. No fundamental belief shifts toward Gold... some fund's got to dress up their portfolio's and a bit of a run to minimal hedges in gold - just like we saw pre-the Original Gulf War. The minute the troops are on the ground with Tanks rolling & bombs dropping... we'll see Oil pullback, Gold & Gold stocks sold off, a small rally in the US Dollar and stabilization in the Broad Market - basing for yet another prop-job rally in a still intact longterm Bear Market. I think we ultimately re-test HUI 95-105ish one more time.... 2 sharp selloff/profit taking waves coming in Gold....first to 115ish as soon as we launch our forces in Iraq & establish some ground control of the Oil Fields... and then the 2nd wave down (the "shakeout" retest of 95-105ish) as Gold will be repudiated and we see another Patriotic-Feel Good/Gulf War Deja Vu Rally...with all the usual suspects on Wall St being trotted out declaring yet another "THE Bottom" and "End" of the Bear Market & US Recession, the reaffirmation of US Global Geopolitical & Militaristic Global Dominance etc. There is no doubt that we will very swiftly overwhelm Iraq to a greater degree that we did in the first Gulf War... the Market Pundits along with Greenspan & the ESF/PPT will mount the strongest prop-job rally that we've seen since the original 9/11 dike plug.... and Gold will be pounded and the weak hands who only viewed gold/gold stocks as a temporary hedge to War with Iraq & another domestic Terrorism threat, will dump all things yellow. ...don't buy the first post War wave down.... wait; there will be 2. The longterm, strong hands are at HUI 95ish... you'll be able to re-buy there safely imho... and we will get another chance to re-load. The Gold Bull will base again post the Iraq War/Patriotic Feel Good Rally... and the next Gold leg will be built upon the growing US Account Deficit, still sinking US Dollar (see "USD 80" coming in 2003) and the irrational valuation multiples still found in the broad market...not to mention the coming decade long misallocation of capital that will be need to fund homeland security and the War on Terrorism. *** ...untill the masses see DOW 5,000/ S&P 500 and USD 80ish coming as an ineviatble, fundamental reality... the next significant phase of the GOLD Bull isn't starting. The masses think that as soon as we Roll Thru Iraq; that we're running back to Dow 10,000, that the US recession is over, that stocks are UNDERvalued etc.... and that mindset is NOT indicative of Gold going anywhere significantly higher "nearterm" other than down...via profit taking. I think we were handed a nice Silver-Plattered "pigs get fat, but hogs get slaughtered" trade here.... hope y'all rang that Ca$h Regi$ter here of late... as we'll get another chance to reload when the weak handed "War with Iraq" hedgers get shaken out here... and they will ! But, give them 2 waves... and watch for one final assault on HUI 95-100ish imho. ...that's where I'll be patiently waiting to re-load; along with puts awaiting Dow 5,000 / S&P 500. - back to the bunker: scope down~ [PS: sure getting crowded down here in the bunker - not much more room to pile the profits, amidst all the hardtack, gas masks & ammo - VBG]